Assessing Coty (COTY) Valuation After CEO Departure And Analyst Downgrades

Simply Wall St.01-15

Recent analyst downgrades following the departure of Coty (COTY) CEO Sue Nabi have put the company’s transition in sharper focus, as firms highlight extended uncertainty and limited clarity on near ...

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Coty’s 90 day share price return of 22.65% and 1 year total shareholder return of 53.55% have both declined,...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["rate"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"COTY":"科蒂"},"translate_title":"在首席执行官离职和分析师降级后评估科蒂(COTY)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"COTY":1.5},"content_text":"Recent analyst downgrades following the departure of Coty (COTY) CEO Sue Nabi have put the company’s transition in sharper focus, as firms highlight extended uncertainty and limited clarity on near term value catalysts. See our latest analysis for Coty. Those leadership changes and the completed sale of the remaining Wella stake to KKR have come against a tougher share price backdrop. Coty’s 90 day share price return of 22.65% and 1 year total shareholder return of 53.55% have both declined, suggesting recent news has added to concerns rather than rebuilding momentum. If you are reassessing Coty after these moves, it could also be a good time to broaden your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With Coty trading at $3.21, showing a 62% intrinsic discount and a 42% gap to the average analyst target, the key question is clear: is this genuine mispricing or is the market already factoring in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 29.6% Undervalued With Coty closing at US$3.21 against a narrative fair value of US$4.56, the current gap puts the company’s long term earnings profile in the spotlight. The imminent end of retailer inventory destocking by late 2025 is expected to eliminate a major headwind, allowing Coty's sell in to realign with strong underlying consumer sell out trends, especially in prestige and mass fragrances. This is expected to support a return to top line growth and EBITDA expansion in the second half of fiscal 2026. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what earnings path and margin lift are built into that valuation gap? The narrative leans on measured revenue growth and a richer profit mix. Curious how those cash flows, discounted at just over 10%, add up to that fair value call? The full story joins these assumptions into one pricing roadmap. Result: Fair Value of $4.56 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that story can unravel quickly if Gucci Beauty revenue proves harder to replace than expected or if high debt limits Coty’s room to invest through disruptions. Find out about the key risks to this Coty narrative.  Build Your Own Coty Narrative If you see the inputs differently or want to test your own assumptions, you can build a Coty story around your numbers in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Coty. Looking for more investment ideas? If Coty is now on your radar, do not stop there, widen your search and give yourself more options before you commit fresh capital.  Spot potential high risk high reward opportunities early by scanning these 3535 penny stocks with strong financials that match the financial traits you care about most. Ride the momentum in next generation technology by sorting through these 25 AI penny stocks that are shaping how artificial intelligence reaches real world applications. Focus on price versus fundamentals by zeroing in on these 887 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may offer more value than the market currently reflects.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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