Keyera Maintained at Buy at TPH Ahead of Q4 Results; Price Target at C$54.00

MT Newswires Live01-16

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Thursday Keyera (KEY.TO) maintained its buy rating on the shares of Keyera (KEY.TO) with a C$54.00 price target ahead of fourth-quarter results from the oil and gas infrastructure and processing company.

"Slight negative. We're lowering our Q4'25 Adjusted EBITDA estimate to C$302MM from C$310MM, compared to the current consensus of C$299MM. The revision is driven primarily by the Liquids Infrastructure segment, where we reduced Q4'25 realized margin by C$7MM to C$146MM to reflect lower storage revenue expectations. For FY'26, our EBITDA outlook declined by C$35MM to C$1,834MM (vs. consensus C$1,814MM), entirely due to weaker commodity strips impacting KEY's legacy Marketing segment. As a reminder, KEY is protected from movements in the frac spread for 12 months post-close as part of the PAA deal terms. We now forecast FY'26 Marketing margin of C$540MM (inclusive of PAA), while our realized margin estimates for both fee-based segments (inclusive of PAA) remain unchanged at C$466MM for G&P and C$1,020MM for Liquids Infrastructure. Our modeling of the PAA NGL acquisition is unchanged, as we continue to expect a partial Q1'26 contribution based on a late-quarter close," analyst AJ O'Donnell wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 44.30, Change: +0.53, Percent Change: +1.21

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We're lowering our Q4'25 Adjusted EBITDA estimate to C$302MM from C$310MM, compared to the current consensus of C$299MM. The revision is driven primarily by the Liquids Infrastructure segment, where we reduced Q4'25 realized margin by C$7MM to C$146MM to reflect lower storage revenue expectations. For FY'26, our EBITDA outlook declined by C$35MM to C$1,834MM (vs. consensus C$1,814MM), entirely due to weaker commodity strips impacting KEY's legacy Marketing segment. As a reminder, KEY is protected from movements in the frac spread for 12 months post-close as part of the PAA deal terms. We now forecast FY'26 Marketing margin of C$540MM (inclusive of PAA), while our realized margin estimates for both fee-based segments (inclusive of PAA) remain unchanged at C$466MM for G&amp;P and C$1,020MM for Liquids Infrastructure. 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