Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Thursday maintained its hold rating on the shares of Gibson Energy (GEI.TO) with a C$26.00 price target ahead of fourth-quarter results from the oil infrastructure and marketing company.
"We're lowering our Q4'25 Adj. EBITDA estimate by C$2.3MM to C$153.3MM, compared to current consensus of C$155.5MM. The revision is entirely due to lower Marketing expectations, as we now forecast Q4'25 Marketing EBITDA of C$5MM, bringing FY'25 to C$19.5MM-just below management's C$20MM guidance from the Q3'25 call. We forecast Infrastructure EBITDA of C$160MM, up C$6MM q/q, driven by higher terminal revenues and modestly lower operating expenses. For FY'26, our Adj. EBITDA estimate of C$642.9MM sits above consensus at C$636.2MM. We forecast y/y growth of C$53.9MM (+9.1%), comprised of slightly higher Marketing results at C$28.5MM and Infrastructure growth of C$41.2MM to C$662.6MM. The Infrastructure improvement reflects full-year contributions from Gateway terminal projects and a partial contribution from the recently sanctioned Wink-to-Gateway project. Additionally, we see potential for further producer partnership announcements similar to the Baytex Duvernay infrastructure deal from last year, which could provide additional upside to our current estimates. On capital allocation, we model no buybacks under the current NCIB, given muted Marketing expectations and elevated leverage anticipated for FY'26. However, we expect the company to begin buybacks in FY'27 as higher segment results drive leverage below 4.0x, opening the potential for increased shareholder returns," analyst AJ O'Donnell wrote/
(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)
Price: 25.87, Change: +0.02, Percent Change: +0.10
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