LIVE MARKETS-As AI shakes the tree, jobs fall like leaves in autumn

Reuters01-16
LIVE MARKETS-As AI shakes the tree, jobs fall like leaves in autumn

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AS AI SHAKES THE TREE, JOBS FALL LIKE LEAVES IN AUTUMN

Artificial intelligence is accelerating job losses in key industries worldwide, according to a comprehensive Morgan Stanley survey that found an average net decline of 4% in positions across five major sectors—a shift that is outpacing expert forecasts and sending an early warning signal to global labor markets.

The brokerage surveyed companies in the U.S., UK, Germany, Japan, and Australia and targeted sectors that it determined to be most impacted by AI adoption - consumer staples distribution & retail, real estate management & development, transportation, healthcare equipment & services, and automobiles & components.

"The magnitude of net job loss surprised us," said analysts at Morgan Stanley.

"This provides an early warning regarding the potential negative employment effects as AI technology continues to improve at a non-linear rate."

The survey showed 11% of jobs were eliminated, with an additional 12% not backfilled, partially offset by 18% new hires. Notably, U.S. companies bucked the trend with a 2% net gain, while the UK reported the steepest decline at 8%.

Autos led sectoral job losses at 10%, while smaller companies proved more resilient, posting a net gain.

Early-career roles faced the highest risk, with retraining and redeployment efforts focused on employees with 2-10 years' experience. Companies also reported an average 11.5% boost in productivity due to AI, with IT, customer service, and marketing roles leading the gains.

Morgan Stanley highlights industry leaders poised to benefit from AI adoption, including Alphabet GOOGL.O, Meta META.O, Amazon AMZN.O, Microsoft MSFT.O, NVIDIA NVDA.O, and Tesla TSLA.O.

"The pace of AI capability improvement is non-linear, and we believe investors are underappreciating this dynamic," notes Morgan Stanley.

The brokerage recommends focusing on sectors with material AI impacts and companies with pricing power, naming Apple AAPL.O, Salesforce CRM.N, and SAP SAPG.DE among its overweight-rated stocks.

Firms like Adecco ADEN.S and Pearson PSON.L, which are reskilling, are also identified as key players as the labour market adapts to an AI-driven future.

(Akriti Shah)

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