Key changes in Russian wheat market for first half of MY 2025/26: 2026 preview

Fastmarkets01-20

Russia entered the 2025/26 marketing year with expectations of a larger crop. This later became a concern because of the dry weather in southern regions, but eventually the general picture changed ...

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This later became a concern because of the dry weather in southern regions, but eventually the general picture changed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/key-changes-in-russian-wheat-market-for-first-half-of-my-2025-26-2026-preview/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fastmarkets_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Key changes in Russian wheat market for first half of MY 2025/26: 2026 preview</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKey changes in Russian wheat market for first half of MY 2025/26: 2026 preview\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-20 13:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/key-changes-in-russian-wheat-market-for-first-half-of-my-2025-26-2026-preview/><strong>Fastmarkets</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Russia entered the 2025/26 marketing year with expectations of a larger crop. This later became a concern because of the dry weather in southern regions, but eventually the general picture changed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/key-changes-in-russian-wheat-market-for-first-half-of-my-2025-26-2026-preview/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"OZK","symbol_name":"欧扎克银行","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/key-changes-in-russian-wheat-market-for-first-half-of-my-2025-26-2026-preview/","article_id":"2604116066","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"fastmarkets_highlight","url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/key-changes-in-russian-wheat-market-for-first-half-of-my-2025-26-2026-preview/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2604116066","pubTimestamp":1768885200,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fastmarkets_highlight","name":"Fastmarkets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The start of the new 2026 financial year makes it possible to highlight several key developments in the Russian wheat market during the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year. These include higher production, slower export activity, very stable prices and the continued dominance of three major exporters in terms of market share.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"OZK":"欧扎克银行","FSB":"Franklin Financial Network, Inc.","BK4211":"区域性银行"},"translate_title":"2025/26年上半年俄罗斯小麦市场的主要变化：2026年预览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FSB":1,"OZK":1,"MZWmain":1.5},"content_text":"Russia entered the 2025/26 marketing year with expectations of a larger crop. This later became a concern because of the dry weather in southern regions, but eventually the general picture changed toward a better crop, as was initially expected.\nIt was later confirmed by Russian statistical agency Rosstat to be the third-biggest on record, at 91.36 million tonnes. This was higher than all the estimates heard earlier in the market, and could be even higher in the final report, expected in March.\nNevertheless, despite expectations of a large crop, the start of the marketing year was not active. Exports were relatively slow during the first half of the season and only began to accelerate in October-November, with record monthly shipments of 5.5 million tonnes recorded in October.\nTotal exports for July-December were about 11-12% below last year’s level, however, with cumulative wheat exports currently just above 25 million tonnes.\nThat means that a huge amount is still inside country for export in the second half of the marketing year, with the quota for the period from February 15 to June 30 at 20 million tonnes for all grain exports. There is also an additional 150,000 tonnes quota for exports from the Kaliningrad region from January 1.\nBut while it seems that there is huge amount still left for export, there is a significant factor to consider.\nNotable changes in key producing regions in Russia are expected to affect the market in 2025/26. Major export-oriented regions in the south have experienced lower yields and reduced production, while the largest crops are concentrated in the central regions.\nThis means that additional logistical considerations must be factored-in, making deliveries more complex and potentially less efficient than in previous seasons.\nIn the past few months, trade sources have already begun to complain about logistics and sourcing from the more remote regions.\nPrice stability\nOne more change that was seen by many trade sources in 2025/26 was in export price stability. The price has been moving in a range of $15-18 per tonne, but only twice has reached the higher side of the range of $242-243 per tonne, as shown by Fastmarkets’ assessments in July-August. Since September, the price as been within $5 per tonne of $227-232 per tonne.\nIn comparison, during the 2024/25 marketing year, the price for 12.5% wheat moved between $215 per tonne and $257 per tonne FOB Black Sea ports.\n“Prices remain stable,” a trader said. “Demand is currently very low. Since the beginning of the season, exporters have incurred substantial losses. CPT prices rose sharply after the start of the harvest, reaching 16,800 roubles [$208] per tonne while external prices did not increase. As a result, prices have remained within the $227-232 per tonne FOB range throughout the season.”\n\nDestinations changes\nAlong with price being stable through the season, it was also closer to the price of rival Romanian/Bulgarian 12.5% wheat than it was a year earlier, which was said to have persuaded some buyers to switch to those origins. The share of Russian wheat moving to Algeria has also dropped significantly in the 2025/26 marketing year to date, with less 11.5% wheat available in the market.\nAlgeria was the fourth-largest importer of Russian wheat in 2024/25, with around 1.5 million tonnes in total last year. So far this year, it has reduced its buying from Russia to around 395,000 tonnes, compared with 1.5 million tonnes at the same stage a year earlier, according to available data.\nAlso, after a huge increase in wheat exports to Nigeria in 2024/25, that flow has dropped so far in 2025/26 to only 368,000 tonnes, versus 841,400 tonnes a year before.\nAnother big drop was seen for Bangladesh, with current exports at 1.3 million tonnes compared with around 2 million tonnes a year earlier.\nThe competition in the wheat market this season has been more aggressive, with US and European wheat prices very competitive in the first half of the marketing year, but from December onward Argentina and Australia took the lead, offering much lower prices.\nEgypt has maintained its position of the main buyer of Russian wheat in 2025/26, with around 4.56 million tonnes imported so far, compared with last year’s 4.6 million tonnes during same period.\nIran has regained its share in Russian wheat supplies, with 1.8 million tonnes imported so far. This is a huge increase, given that total imports in 2024/25 were 1.3 million tonnes.\nFinally, a big change was seen for Turkey, which has increased imports after an import ban on wheat was eliminated in June 2025, with imports totaling roughly up to 4 million tonnes to date, compared with 3.5 million tonnes imported through 2024/25 MY. But part of that volume might include re-exports to Iraqi.\nAnother notable development for the Turkish destination in the 2025/26 marketing year was the sharp increase in freight rates for Coaster-sized vessels. Due to disruptions in the Kerch Strait, caused by inspections conducted by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to prevent potential attacks, freight costs rose to such an extent that CFR calculations for Handy-sized vessels became more competitive.\nAs a result, larger volumes were shipped from Black Sea ports, even though trade to the Marmara region is typically dominated by shallow-water port operations.\nKey exporters keep positions\nNo significant change was seen among exporters during the first half of the year, with an expected slight increase seen in the share among the key export companies. The three biggest companies now take a share of around 55.5% of the wheat exports out of the Black Sea ports, slightly above last year’s figure.\nGrain Gates increased its share at 33%, and around 6.7 million tonnes exported, according to Fastmarkets’ analysis. That is 3 percentage points higher than a year earlier, when the share was 30%.\nAston remained the second-biggest exporter with market share generally stable at 15% so far, followed by United Grain Co (OZK), with its share also steady year on year around 7.5%.\nThe distribution of the 20 million tonnes grain export quota is expected in first week of February. The distribution among the exporters is based on the historical performance of the companies, so most likely the shares in the quota will be equivalent to the shares in exports during the first half of the year.\nFuture crop\nWhile the 2025/26 marketing year only halfway complete, early estimates for the next crop are already emerging in the market, even though a full winter and spring still lie ahead and could materially change the outlook. Nevertheless, these initial figures appear more optimistic than those discussed at the same stage last year.\nCurrently, Russian analytical agency IKAR estimates wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year in a range of 86–91 million tonnes, compared with 88.5 million tonnes for the current season, excluding the so-called “new territories,” namely the Ukrainian regions currently occupied by Russia.\nThis compares with early estimates made at the same stage last year for the 2025/26 season, when 85 million tonnes was considered an optimistic scenario and 79 million tonnes a pessimistic one.\nAnother analytical agency, SovEcon, is currently projecting a wide range for potential wheat output, from 79.8 million tonnes up to 87.9 million tonnes. This range is also above SovEcon’s early estimate from last year, which was 78.7 million tonnes.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2604116066","isCrawlerRequest":true}