Is NIO (NIO) Finally Fairly Priced After Years Of Share Price Declines?

Simply Wall St.01-19 21:15

If you are wondering whether NIO at around US$4.71 is a bargain or a value trap, you are not alone, many investors are asking the same question. The stock has seen a mixed return profile, with a 7 day...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2604132854?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/4021000-choice2-main-header/1585186704391","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-01-19 21:15","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2604132854","market":"nz","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Is NIO (NIO) Finally Fairly Priced After Years Of Share Price Declines?","media":"Simply Wall St.","content":"<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether NIO at around US$4.71 is a bargain or a value trap, you are not alone, many investors are asking the same question. The stock has seen a mixed return profile, with a 7 day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-nio/nio/news/is-nio-nio-finally-fairly-priced-after-years-of-share-price\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is NIO (NIO) Finally Fairly Priced After Years Of Share Price Declines?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs NIO (NIO) Finally Fairly Priced After Years Of Share Price Declines?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-19 21:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-nio/nio/news/is-nio-nio-finally-fairly-priced-after-years-of-share-price><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether NIO at around US$4.71 is a bargain or a value trap, you are not alone, many investors are asking the same question. The stock has seen a mixed return profile, with a 7 day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-nio/nio/news/is-nio-nio-finally-fairly-priced-after-years-of-share-price\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4548","symbol_name":"巴美列捷福持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-nio/nio/news/is-nio-nio-finally-fairly-priced-after-years-of-share-price","article_id":"2604132854","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/4021000-choice2-main-header/1585186704391"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-nio/nio/news/is-nio-nio-finally-fairly-priced-after-years-of-share-price","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2604132854","pubTimestamp":1768828511,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether NIO at around US$4.71 is a bargain or a value trap, you are not alone, many investors are asking the same question.\nThe stock has seen a mixed return profile, with a 7 day return of 2.9% decline, a 30 day return of 5.6% decline, a year to date return of 8.4% decline, a 1 year return of 8.0%, a 3 year return of 60.9% decline, and a 5 year return of 92.1% decline.\nRecent headlines around NIO have continued to focus on its position in the electric vehicle space and...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK6125":"汽车制造商","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4588":"碎股"},"translate_title":"经过多年的股价下跌，蔚来（蔚来）的定价终于公平了吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":1.98,"NIO.SI":1.98,"09866":1.98,"EVS.SI":0.6},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether NIO at around US$4.71 is a bargain or a value trap, you are not alone, many investors are asking the same question. The stock has seen a mixed return profile, with a 7 day return of 2.9% decline, a 30 day return of 5.6% decline, a year to date return of 8.4% decline, a 1 year return of 8.0%, a 3 year return of 60.9% decline, and a 5 year return of 92.1% decline. Recent headlines around NIO have continued to focus on its position in the electric vehicle space and investor debate over how to interpret its share price performance. This context matters because sentiment around the sector can quickly spill over into how the market prices individual names such as NIO. Our valuation checks currently give NIO a score of 2 out of 6. Next we will break that down across different valuation approaches before finishing with a broader way of thinking about what NIO might really be worth.  NIO scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: NIO Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows, then discounts them back to today to arrive at an estimate of what the business might be worth per share. For NIO, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of around CN¥19,679.27m. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for the next few years, and Simply Wall St extrapolates further out, with projected free cash flow of CN¥9,666m in 2030. All of these CN¥ figures are then discounted back to today using the model assumptions. On this basis, the estimated intrinsic value is about US$4.89 per share, compared with a recent share price of around US$4.71. That implies the stock is about 3.6% undervalued, which is a very small gap and could easily be closed by normal market moves. Result: ABOUT RIGHT NIO is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act. NIO Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for NIO. Approach 2: NIO Price vs Sales For companies where earnings are weak or volatile, the P/S ratio is often more useful than P/E because it compares the share price to revenue rather than profit, which can swing around with investment cycles and one off items. In general, higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/S multiple. Slower expected growth or higher risk usually line up with a lower, more conservative range. NIO currently trades on a P/S of 1.14x. That sits above the Auto industry average of 0.75x, but below the peer group average of 2.36x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio for NIO of 1.06x, which is the P/S level suggested by factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks. This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the wider industry because it adjusts for NIO’s own characteristics rather than assuming all Auto stocks deserve the same multiple. Compared with the Fair Ratio of 1.06x, NIO’s actual 1.14x P/S is only slightly higher, which points to the shares being priced about in line with those fundamentals. Result: ABOUT RIGHT NYSE:NIO P/S Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1443 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NIO Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which let you set out your story for NIO, link that story to your own revenue, earnings and margin assumptions, and then turn it into a fair value that you can easily compare to today’s share price. All of this happens within Simply Wall St’s Community page, where Narratives update automatically as new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a bullish NIO Narrative around future chip licensing revenue, delivery growth across NIO, ONVO and FIREFLY, and a fair value closer to US$9.00. Another might focus on weaker near term volume guidance, softer 2026 demand expectations, higher competition and a more cautious fair value near US$3.00. This gives you a clear, side by side view of how different views on the same company translate into different estimates of what the stock might be worth and when it could be attractive or expensive for you personally. Do you think there's more to the story for NIO? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:NIO 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if NIO might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2604132854","isCrawlerRequest":true}