The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2056 ET - Operationally, BHP delivered a clean 2Q, with beats on both iron ore and copper production, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. Copper also "beat hard on price, and FY26 copper guidance was formally upgraded," which should result in upgrades to consensus earnings estimates, Peker says. He notes that Escondida and Western Australia Iron Ore continue to perform well, and that Copper South Australia continues to show signs of stability. The key offset is Jansen Stage 1 capex that has been revised higher to US$8.4 billion, roughly US$1 billion above RBC's forecast, Peker says. "Alongside working-capital outflows, this pressures near-term FCF [free cash flow] but balance sheet strength remains intact," he says. RBC has a sector perform rating and a target price of A$49.00 on BHP. The stock is down 1.5% at A$48.01 a share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2027 ET - Oil rises in early Asian trading after Brent and WTI crude oil fell moderately overnight. Meanwhile, Iran's crude-oil production is likely to stay stable at around 3.2 million barrels a day this year, with limited short-term disruption to upstream operations, Rystad Energy says, citing its own analysis. However, greater risk, for now, isn't physical supply loss but geopolitical risk premium as tensions rise and uncertainty persists, Rystad Energy adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.4% higher at $59.69 a barrel and front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.1% higher at $64.02 a barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1800 ET - RBC Capital Markets identifies a couple of possible impacts from Origin Energy's decision to delay the closure of its Eraring coal-fired power plant in by more than a year and a half. Origin now expects Eraring to close in April 2029, later than its prior plan of August 2027. RBC analyst Gordon Ramsay says the decision could reduce future wholesale electricity pricing in Australia's New South Wales state if the plant had closed in August 2027. "Should the market now be questioning the planned closure dates of other major coal-fired electricity generation plants in Australia--Yallourn in 2028, Bayswater 2031-33, and Loy Yang by 2035?" RBC adds. It has a sector perform call on Origin, which ended Monday at A$11.05.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1739 ET - A significantly improved outlook for metallurgical coal prices doesn't persuade UBS to drop its sell call on Whitehaven Coal. Analyst Lachlan Shaw notes the price of benchmark Premium-Low Vol Hard Coking Coal has risen 17% since the start of December. That reflects weather-related disruptions in Australia's Queensland state and strong buying interest. "However, Whitehaven Coal is up 25% over the same timeframe," UBS says. It says Whitehaven's valuation appears stretched. One reason is that Whitehaven could be affected by more disruptions due to bad weather over the next 2-3 months. Also, metallurgical coal accounts for around 60% of Whitehaven's revenue. The remainder comes from thermal coal, which has a more subdued price outlook, UBS says. Its price target lifts 18% to A$8.45/share. Whitehaven ended Monday at A$8.80. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1722 ET - Coronado Global Resources disappears from UBS's sell list after metallurgical coal prices moved higher on supply disruptions in Australia's Queensland state and stabilizing demand. UBS upgrades Coronado to neutral and raises its price target by 76% to A$0.44/share. "Previously, we maintained a cautious stance due to the balance of market conditions and cost reduction risks during a period of peak financial leverage," says analyst Lachlan Shaw. "However, with the notable improvement in the outlook for the met coal market, we now identify significant value in Coronado." A step change in operating cash flow suggests Coronado can materially bring its debt down over the next 12 months. UBS now expects Coronado will be profitable from FY 2026, a year earlier than it previously thought. Coronado ended Monday at A$0.42. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
0955 ET - Oil prices pare earlier losses as traders closely monitor the escalating standoff over Greenland. Brent crude is down 0.3% to $63.94 a barrel, while WTI slips 0.2% to $59.3 a barrel after both benchmarks fell about 1% earlier in the session. Sentiment remained under pressure after President Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on some European nations from Feb. 1, reviving concerns that a renewed trade dispute could weigh on global demand. "Additional tariffs could weigh on global growth expectations and reduce confidence in the demand outlook for crude," Christopher Tahir from Exness says. Meanwhile, "easing near-term supply fears from Iran helped drive prices down, after reports that U.S. actions in the region have been put on hold, lowering the perceived risk of an immediate disruption." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0511 ET - Fitch Ratings' affirmation of Saudi Arabia's A+ credit rating underlines the strength of sovereign credit in the Gulf Arabic region, First Abu Dhabi Bank analysts say in a note. It reflects Saudi Arabia's strong fiscal and external balance sheets, with government debt-to-GDP and sovereign net foreign assets considerably stronger than both the 'A' and 'AA' medians, Fitch said. Fitch projects Saudi Arabia's debt-to-GDP ratio at 36% at end-2026, below projected 2026 peer median of 56%. Oil dependence, World Bank Governance Indicators and vulnerability to geopolitical shocks have improved but remain weaknesses, it says. "Deep and broad social and economic reforms implemented under Vision 2030 are diversifying economic activity, albeit at a meaningful cost to the balance sheets." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0507 ET - Shell has a strong balance sheet and no real short-term need for cash, RBC Capital Markets analysts Biraj Borkhataria and Adnan Dhanani write after an unconfirmed report that the U.K. energy major is considering selling a stake in its LNG Canada project. A sale would seem slightly odd given the asset is one of Shell's flagship projects, they write. Anyone buying the stake would likely take over operating the asset, they add. The sale raises questions as to what Shell could use the proceeds for, they say. They aren't convinced selling assets in a bid to maintain its buyback will appeaseinvestors, particularly since demand for oil and gas in coming years is widely expected to be more resilient than initially anticipated, they write. Shell's shares fall 0.75% to 2,732 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0428 ET - European natural-gas prices fall on profit-taking and prospects of additional LNG supply after last week's rally. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract falls 7.8% to 34.01 euros a megawatt hour in early trading after rising above 37 euros for a weekly gain of nearly 30%. Prices soared on forecasts for colder-than-usual weather toward the end of January and below-average inventory levels across the region. However, "the rally in the European market has seen gas prices in the region trade at a premium to Asian LNG," analysts at ING say. This should bring additional LNG supply into Europe, helping to ease some of the growing tightness worries, the analysts add. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0405 ET - European energy stocks fall in opening trade as sentiment sours on President's Trump threat to impose tariffs on imports from eight European countries. A risk-off approach pushes Brent crude down 1.1% at $63.43 a barrel. WTI, however, is up 0.4% at $59.44 a barrel. In London, BP falls 1% while Shell drops 0.45%. France's TotalEnergies slides 1%, Spain's Repsol drops 0.9% and Italy's Eni falls 0.7%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0353 ET - Oil prices fall on a broader risk-off tone across markets after President Trump vowed to impose tariffs on several European countries in an effort to pressure Denmark to sell Greenland to the U.S. Meanwhile, with no further escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions over the weekend, concerns about supply disruptions subsided. In early trading, Brent crude is down 1.1% to $63.42 a barrel, while WTI slips 1% to $58.82 a barrel. "Structurally, crude remains under pressure from expectations that supply will outpace demand this year, although pockets of tightness persist, including shortages from Kazakhstan due to Black Sea disruptions," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0321 ET - Palm oil producer Bumitama Agri is likely to serve as a proxy for rebounding crude palm oil prices, Macquarie analysts Amanda Foo and Hanel Tan say in a note. The Singapore-listed company's 100% upstream exposure provides high earnings leverage to palm oil prices, they say. Given current weakness in palm oil prices is likely temporary, the analysts see potential for Bumitama's stock to re-rate over several months. They expect Bumitama to post 2025-2026 adjusted profit of S$224 million-S$236 million. "We estimate a MYR100/ton change in crude palm oil price could lift earnings by 7%, all else equal," they add. Macquarie initiates coverage of Bumitama with an outperform rating and S$1.70 target price. Shares fall 0.8% to S$1.27. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 19, 2026 20:56 ET (01:56 GMT)
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