A Look At Comerica (CMA) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum

Simply Wall St.01-19

With no single headline event driving attention to Comerica (CMA) today, many investors are instead looking at the stock’s recent performance and fundamentals to gauge how it currently fits within the...

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See our latest analysis for Comerica. Comerica’s share price has been steady over the past week, and its 90 day share price return of 19.33% together with a 1 year total shareholder return of 44.67% suggest that momentum has recently been building. If strong regional bank gains have you thinking about what else could be on your radar, it might be a good moment to check out solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (None results). With the stock trading around $91.60 and metrics like a 44.67% 1 year total return already on the board, the key question now is whether Comerica still trades below its underlying value or if markets are already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 13% Overvalued Comerica’s last close at $91.60 sits above the most followed narrative fair value of $81.28, which is built using a discount rate of 8.21% and detailed earnings projections.  The analysts have a consensus price target of $67.15 for Comerica based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $75.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $56.0.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how modest revenue growth, a slight margin squeeze and a higher future P/E can still support that fair value estimate? The full narrative spells out the earnings path, the assumed share count moves and the profit multiple that have to line up for this pricing to make sense. Result: Fair Value of $81.28 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that narrative can quickly look different if loan growth stays flat or if rising deposit costs further squeeze margins and weigh on long term profitability. Find out about the key risks to this Comerica narrative.  Build Your Own Comerica Narrative If that fair value story does not quite match how you see Comerica, you can stress test the assumptions, plug in your own expectations and Do it your way in a few minutes. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Comerica. Looking for more investment ideas? If Comerica sparked your interest, do not stop there. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to spot other opportunities before they move without you.  Spot potential value ideas early by checking out these 875 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may be trading below what their cash flows suggest. Explore developments in technology by scanning these 24 AI penny stocks that are applying artificial intelligence across different parts of the economy. Boost your income watchlist by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that focus on cash returns above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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