The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1542 ET - Crude futures settle higher for a fourth consecutive weekly gain as rising geopolitical tensions outweigh broader concerns of global oversupply. Recent gains appear driven more by hedging and risk management than a structural shift in the global balance, Antonio Di Giacomo of XS.com says in a note. "Although the market's base case assumes that the likelihood of direct U.S. military action against Iran has decreased, a risk premium persists due to the possibility of escalation in the Middle East," he adds. "As long as there are no actual supply disruptions or a strong rebound in demand, oil will likely continue to trade within established ranges, with bouts of headline-driven volatility but without a sustained long-term directional trend." WTI settles up 0.4% at $59.44 a barrel for a 0.5% weekly gain. Brent rises 0.6% to $64.13, up 1.2% from a week ago. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1527 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle lower ahead of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend with seemingly little support from colder weather forecasts for the back half of January. "This is the first time in a few months weather trends and prices are not correlated," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Inventory surpluses, high production, this week's pullback in LNG feedgas flows and the coming holiday could be behind the weakness, the forecaster adds. Nymex gas for February delivery settles down 0.8% at $3.103/mmBtu, a 2/1% loss on the week. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1353 ET - Geopolitical oil risk premium is likely to remain capped as global oil oversupply is enough to absorb any possible disruptions in Iran, while potential short-term supply increases from Venezuela are likely to be small, Fitch Ratings says in a report. Fitch forecasts global supply will increase by 2.5 million barrels a day this year after rising by an estimated 3 million b/d in 2025, with demand up by about 800,000 b/d each year. Fitch has a $63-a-barrel price assumption for Brent in 2026. "Material interruptions to Iranian oil production would boost prices, although the impact would still be limited given global market oversupply," the ratings firm says. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1330 ET - Rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by one this week to 410, or 68 fewer 1han a year ago, Baker Hughes reports. The EIA in its latest outlook expects U.S. oil production to be little changed this year from 2025 around 13.6 million barrels a day, but to fall by 340,000 b/d in 2027 as lower drilling rates start to have an effect. Production was a record last year as rising well-level productivity offset a 13% drop in the number of rigs, the EIA said. But "over the next two years, we expect sustained lower crude oil prices will result in a pullback in drilling and completion activity that is enough to outweigh ongoing increases in productivity." Rigs drilling for natural gas fell by two this week to 122, 24 more than a year ago, according to Baker Hughes. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1036 ET - Surging metal prices, paired with falling oil prices, have pushed European mining and energy stocks to unsustainable levels, analysts at Bank of America write. "After sharp outperformance for mining, the potential downside risks stemming from the sector's macro drivers are becoming hard to ignore," the analysts write. Copper prices will top out over the year, the analysts expect, while macroeconomic shocks and strong sterling will weigh on U.K. miners. Meanwhile, oil will settle around $60 a barrel this year, supporting energy stocks that have fallen alongside tumbling oil prices, the analysts writes. More broadly, European equities will suffer from investors' underappreciation of a weakening U.S. labor market, the analysts add. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0955 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower in cautious trade ahead of the long weekend with the market vulnerable to swings in the weather outlook. Colder temperatures for the second half of January are likely to lift demand, with inventory surpluses as a counterweight. The below-average 71 Bcf storage withdrawal for last week left stocks 106 Bcf or 3.4% above the five-year average. "It appears that a triple-digit surplus will remain to kick off the month of February when the weather factor will begin to diminish in importance," Ritterbusch and Associates says in a note. Nymex gas for February delivery is off 1.3% at $3.087/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0934 ET - Oil futures are recovering some of the ground lost the previous session when markets saw reduced risk of U.S. strikes against Iran. Crude is "trying to hold a bullish structure after trading in a $6.00 range the past week," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Lack of progress in Russian/Ukraine peace efforts looks supportive of prices, along with additional sanctions to be set against Iran, he says. "While it seems the geopolitical aspects have cooled for now, the U.S. is said to be sending yet another major warship to the Middle East which is signaling to traders that Iran will be under extreme scrutiny." WTI is up 1.6% at $60.12 a barrel and Brent is up 1.5% at $64.74. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0528 ET - Palm oil prices ended higher on the back of strong performance in the soybean oil market after the Trump administration announced plans to introduce biofuel quotas by late March, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Trump's move will likely increase overall demand for soybean oil, which in would lift market sentiment on palm oil, he adds. Ng expects crude palm oil futures to find support at 4,000 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,100 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for March delivery closed 80 ringgit higher at 4,071 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0441 ET - European defense groups climb, as concerns grow in the continent over President Trump's repeated position that the U.S. needs Greenland for security purposes. Kongsberg leads the rises, up 6.1%. The Norwegian missile-maker's gains are also being helped by Bank of America saying Thursday that the company has a very relevant portfolio to support NATO members trying to improve their air-defense capabilities, and increased its target price on the stock to 335 kroner from 300 kroner. Elsewhere, Indra Sistemas jumps 5.4%, TKMS gains 5.1%, and QinetiQ advances 2.4%. Thales, Fincantieri and Hensoldt are up 2.2% each, while Leonardo increases 1.6% and BAE Systems moves up 1.5%. Lagging slightly behind is Rheinmetall, which gains 0.9%. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)
0426 ET - European natural-gas prices extend their rally, hovering near 35 euros a megawatt hour as forecasts of colder weather across parts of Europe raise concerns over supply. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 5.2% to 34.88 euros in early trading and is headed for a remarkable weekly gain of 23%. Meanwhile, according to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe, gas storage levels are now below 52% full, below the five-year average. "We have been warning about the potential for a short-covering rally in the market, given the sizable short position that funds held in TTF through the early part of winter," ING analysts say. "Investment funds have already reduced their net short in TTF from 92.76 terawatt hours in mid-December to 55.14 terawatt hours currently." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0402 ET - London-listed miners weigh heavily on the blue-chip index following falls in metal prices as easing geopolitical tensions help temper safe-haven demand. Antofagasta is leading the index down 2.1%, while Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Glencore lose 2.1%, 1.8% and 10%, respectively. Gold futures in New York fall 0.3% to $4,608.40 a troy ounce, while silver futures are down 1.5% to $90.97. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0341 ET - Oil prices are mixed as traders weigh risks of supply disruptions, though concerns over imminent U.S. military action in Iran have faded. "While risks have eased somewhat, they remain significant, keeping the market nervous in the short term," ING analysts say. "However, the longer this goes on without any U.S. intervention, the risk premium will continue to fade, allowing more bearish fundamentals to dominate." Meanwhile, the ICE Brent prompt timespread--the price difference between near-term and later-dated Brent contracts--suggests some supply tightness in the spot market, likely due to reduced oil exports from Kazakhstan through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, the analysts say. Brent crude slips 0.1% to $63.70 a barrel, while WTI rises 0.5% to $58.47 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 16, 2026 15:42 ET (20:42 GMT)
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