Is RTX (RTX) Pricing In Too Much Optimism After A 70% One Year Surge?

Simply Wall St.01-17 12:32

If you are wondering whether RTX is still reasonably priced after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current share price might be implying about future value. RTX recently closed at...

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RTX recently closed at...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-rtx/rtx/news/is-rtx-rtx-pricing-in-too-much-optimism-after-a-70-one-year\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4585","symbol_name":"ETF&股票定投概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-rtx/rtx/news/is-rtx-rtx-pricing-in-too-much-optimism-after-a-70-one-year","article_id":"2604465619","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/159230-main-header/1756229720455"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-rtx/rtx/news/is-rtx-rtx-pricing-in-too-much-optimism-after-a-70-one-year","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2604465619","pubTimestamp":1768624326,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether RTX is still reasonably priced after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current share price might be implying about future value.\nRTX recently closed at US$201.92, with returns of 7.1% over 7 days, 14.0% over 30 days, 7.8% year to date, 69.8% over 1 year, 129.0% over 3 years and 235.1% over 5 years. 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RTX recently closed at US$201.92, with returns of 7.1% over 7 days, 14.0% over 30 days, 7.8% year to date, 69.8% over 1 year, 129.0% over 3 years and 235.1% over 5 years. This naturally raises questions about how much optimism is already reflected in the stock. Recent headlines around RTX have focused on the company as a major player in its sector, with ongoing attention on its role in aerospace and defense and how that positions it within broader market themes. This backdrop gives important context when you think about what could be priced into the shares today and how investors are weighing opportunity against risk. RTX currently has a valuation score of 1 out of 6, which means it screens as undervalued on only one of six checks and sets up a closer look at different valuation methods. An even more useful way of thinking about value will be introduced at the end of this article.  RTX scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: RTX Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business might be worth by projecting the cash it could generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today in dollar terms. For RTX, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The company’s last twelve-month free cash flow is about $4.47b. Analysts supply FCF estimates for the early years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates beyond that. In this case, RTX’s projected free cash flow for 2029 is $10.89b, with a detailed set of annual projections between 2026 and 2035 that are discounted back to present value. Bringing all those discounted cash flows together, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $154.58 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $201.92, the DCF implies RTX is about 30.6% above this estimate, so on this measure the shares screen as overvalued rather than cheap. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests RTX may be overvalued by 30.6%. Discover 863 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. RTX Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for RTX. Approach 2: RTX Price vs Earnings For profitable companies like RTX, the P/E ratio is a useful way to gauge how much you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. Investors usually accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see less risk in those earnings, and look for a lower P/E when growth is more modest or risks feel higher. RTX currently trades on a P/E of 41.07x. That is close to both the Aerospace & Defense industry average P/E of 42.58x and the peer group average of 40.16x, so at first glance the stock sits broadly in line with its sector and direct comparisons. Simply Wall St also provides a Fair Ratio for RTX of 36.00x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as RTX’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks. Because it blends these inputs, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison, which often ignores differences in quality or risk. When compared with this Fair Ratio, RTX’s actual P/E of 41.07x screens as higher, which indicates that the shares may be overvalued on this measure. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:RTX P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1445 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your RTX Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. You can pair your view of RTX’s story with your own forecast for revenue, earnings and margins on Simply Wall St’s Community page. You can then compare the fair value that drops out of that forecast to the current share price to help decide whether RTX looks appealing or not. The Narrative automatically updates when fresh news or earnings land. One investor might build a more optimistic RTX Narrative that points to a fair value around US$197, while another, more cautious investor might anchor closer to the lower analyst price target of US$134, both using the same tool but different assumptions to keep their decisions grounded in numbers rather than headlines. Do you think there's more to the story for RTX? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:RTX 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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