Assessing Hillgrove Resources (ASX:HGO) Valuation After High‑Grade Copper Update And Insider Share Buying

Simply Wall St.01-18

AdvertisementWhy Hillgrove Resources (ASX:HGO) is back on investor radar Recent confirmation of high-grade copper at the Emily Star deposit, together with increased insider share buying, has refocused...

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See our latest analysis for Hillgrove Resources. The recent copper results and insider buying come against a backdrop of strong share price momentum, with a 52.78% 1 month share price return and a 57.14% 3 month share price return. This is occurring even though the 1 year total shareholder return is slightly negative and the 5 year total shareholder return is positive, suggesting interest has picked up again after a weaker period. If this kind of renewed interest in miners has your attention, it could be a good moment to widen your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With the shares up sharply over 1 and 3 months, yet still trading below some analyst targets and estimates of intrinsic value, the key question is whether Hillgrove is still cheap or if the market is already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 8.3% Undervalued Against a last close of A$0.055, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of A$0.06, suggesting only a modest valuation gap based on its assumptions. Ramp-up of copper production at the Nugent development, which is set to increase overall output from 1.4 to 1.8 million tonnes run rate by H1 2026, will leverage existing infrastructure and a largely fixed cost base. This is expected to drive topline revenue growth and support expanding margins as unit costs decline.  \nOngoing exploration success and resource extension drilling, with multiple new high-grade zones discovered and further updates expected, increases the likelihood of substantial mine life extension. This reduces the risk of revenue decline and strengthens long-term cash flow visibility. Read the complete narrative. Wondering how revenue, margins and future earnings are being sketched out to back that fair value? The narrative leans on a detailed production ramp, ambitious profitability targets and a specific earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions matter most and how sensitive the outcome is to them? Read on to see what is driving this valuation story. Result: Fair Value of $0.06 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on a single core asset and relatively high all-in costs, so any production hiccups or cost pressure could quickly challenge the upbeat case. Find out about the key risks to this Hillgrove Resources narrative.  Build Your Own Hillgrove Resources Narrative If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer to piece together your own view from the ground up, you can pull the data, test your assumptions and build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Hillgrove Resources research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Ready to hunt for more investment ideas? Do not stop at one copper story when there are plenty of other opportunities you could be missing. Use the screeners to spark fresh, focused ideas fast.  Target potential mispricing by scanning these 865 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that appear cheap based on projected cash flows and fundamentals. Ride the wave of machine learning and automation by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks shaping how data, software and hardware come together. Tap into the income theme by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer yields above 3% and may suit a regular cash return focus.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Hillgrove Resources might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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