By Collin Eaton and Emily Glazer
Chevron wanted a piece of Nicolás Maduro's Venezuela so it could make significant investments when the country's political fortunes changed. The strongman is out, but President Trump's Venezuela doesn't look much different.
Trump is pressing U.S. oil companies to pour $100 billion into Venezuela's dilapidated oil sector -- and to do so as soon as possible -- following Maduro's dramatic ouster this month. But a rapid escalation in oil investments in Venezuela isn't in the cards, even for Chevron, the only U.S. oil company operating in the oil-rich Latin American country, people close to the company said.
Before making a big investment there, oil executives want to see stability in the country and higher oil prices that translate to profits, some of the people said. Chevron's caution shows how far Trump's aspirations for a speedy Venezuelan oil revival are from what the U.S. oil industry considers to be a realistic timeline.
The divide will test the leadership of Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth, who will have to balance the wishes of an impetuous president with his obligation to shareholders to make prudent investments. Trump has yet to offer any public concessions that would spur investment.
The president hopes his plan will bring U.S. oil prices down to $50 a barrel, a target running counter to the energy industry's interests. Under that scenario, the corresponding price tag on the heavy, viscous crude pumped in Venezuela would be in the high-$30s range.
"That's not economic," said Amos Hochstein, a managing partner at the investment firm TWG Global, who served as an energy adviser to President Joe Biden. "You can't spend billions of dollars on oil that's sub-$40. That doesn't happen anywhere in the world."
The U.S. government is in talks with Chevron and other companies with operations in Venezuela to expand their licenses, and it is fielding interest from more than a half-dozen oil producers for new licenses to export oil from and operate in Venezuela, according to a Trump administration official.
Chevron is optimistic about what its future in Venezuela holds. No oil company has lobbied Washington as extensively for proximity to one of the world's largest oil reserves, nor is any other better positioned to pursue the president's vision.
Because of its active operations in Venezuela, Chevron is positioned to move faster in making investments in the country's oil wealth than any of its rivals. The conditions Chevron would require to embark on large, yearslong projects are less restrictive than those of companies not currently operating in the country, some of the people close to the company said.
Executives, however, believe a large-scale investment currently poses too much risk to shareholders, and they don't need to take big swings in Venezuela when they have better drilling options elsewhere, some of the people said. When the situation on the ground is more stable, Chevron will be prepared to do a reassessment.
"For more than a century, Chevron has been a part of Venezuela's past," a Chevron spokesman said. "We remain committed to its present. And we stand ready to help it build a better future while strengthening U.S. energy and regional security."
At a Mar-a-Lago press conference hours after Maduro's capture, Trump said American oil companies would spend billions of dollars reviving Venezuela's oil production to its former glory. The industry will take "tremendous wealth out of the ground" and share it with Venezuela, Trump said. "We're going to take back the oil that, frankly, we should have taken back a long time ago," he said.
Less than a week later, in a televised meeting at the White House with business leaders, Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson told the president the company would help boost Venezuela's oil output quickly, though he didn't commit to making the kind of multibillion-dollar investment in the country's infrastructure that Trump said he wants to see.
"If we make a deal, you're going to be there a long time," Trump said during their exchange. "If we don't make a deal, you won't be there at all."
Wirth -- who was absent from the meeting because of knee surgery -- has been working with Chevron's government-affairs team to navigate its next steps, people familiar with his plans said.
The situation has the potential to serve as a defining moment of Wirth's legacy. Chevron's hard-won license to operate in Venezuela could become a bargaining chip for an administration that has said it would pick and choose who gets to pump oil in Venezuela.
People close to Wirth said he is a thoughtful businessman whose diplomacy skills will likely serve him well in avoiding the ire Trump directed toward other executives, such as Intel's Lip-Bu Tan, Apple's Tim Cook and Goldman Sachs's David Solomon, when they didn't adhere to his wishes.
Wirth and Trump are known to have a rapport. Wirth was among the first to embrace "the Gulf of America," Trump's new moniker for the Gulf of Mexico. The oil executive is an eloquent speaker whose TV appearances entertain the president. The men have chatted in the past about Venezuela and other topics.
Chevron currently employs about 3,000 people through its four Venezuela joint ventures, which are pumping about 240,000 barrels of oil a day, about one-third of the country's diminished production. Nelson said Chevron can quickly double that output.
"That's just leveraging what's on the ground," he said.
Before they invest heavily in Venezuela, oil executives want to see financial and security guarantees from the U.S. government, changes to the country's legal and fiscal regimes related to oil contracts, contract sanctity and the rule of law, people familiar with the executives' thinking said.
"To put it simply, is it even legal?" asked Baron Lamarre, former head of trading at Malaysia's national oil company, Petronas, and co-founder of the International Digital Exchange.
Lawyers at oil companies are worried about getting into murky legal territory since Venezuela would be signing contracts "under duress" as they faced pressure from the Trump administration, he said.
"It's not going to be easy," said Lamarre, who has done business with Venezuela's state-run Petróleos de Venezuela, also known as PdVSA, in years past. "There's a huge amount of mistrust between the local players and the American government."
At the White House meeting, Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods spoke openly about those conditions, calling the country uninvestable, though he said he planned to send a technical team to Venezuela to assess the situation. Those comments appeared to incur Trump's ire. A couple of days later aboard Air Force One, the president said he wasn't inclined to allow Exxon into Venezuela.
Woods and other executives are watching how Chevron fares in a retooled Venezuela. Alongside oil-field service companies including Halliburton and SLB, Chevron could assist in boosting Venezuela's oil production by between 300,000 and 500,000 barrels a day in about two years, according to some analysts' estimates.
To accomplish this, Chevron would need to repair pipelines, valves, pumps and other equipment. In the longer term, Chevron has assessed a plan that would involve investing in other fields where it has leases, which would take five to seven years to step up, some of the people close to the company said.
Any move into Venezuela will likely be measured. Until the U.S. and the Latin American country come to a deal on a legal framework for oil contracts and sanctions are lifted, most of the industry will stay on the sidelines.
"How does the U.S. government derisk this? How does it ensure this is a better use of investment dollars, on a rapid time frame, especially, than any other investment?" said Jason Bennett, a partner at the law firm Baker Botts. "We're still on step one: Strike a deal with Venezuela."
Write to Collin Eaton at collin.eaton@wsj.com and Emily Glazer at Emily.Glazer@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Mark Nelson said Chevron could raise its output about 50% over the next 18 to 24 months. "Chevron's Dilemma in Venezuela: Support Trump's Vision Without Losing Money," at 11 p.m. ET, incorrectly said that Nelson said Chevron can quickly double that output.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 20, 2026 07:35 ET (12:35 GMT)
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