A Look At Amdocs (DOX) Valuation As Profit-Focused Q4 2025 Results Shift The Growth Narrative

Simply Wall St.01-18

AdvertisementQ4 2025 results put profitability in the spotlight Amdocs (DOX) has put investors on alert after Q4 2025 results showed a 9% year-over-year revenue decline alongside an 83% jump in ...

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See our latest analysis for Amdocs. At a share price of $83.77, Amdocs has a 1 month share price return of 5.09% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 31.29%, while the 3 year total shareholder return of 1.25% signals that momentum has been relatively moderate over a longer window. If Q4 puts profitability in focus for you, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with high growth tech and AI stocks that are also leaning into AI and cloud driven demand. With the shares up 5.09% over the past month but only 1.25% total return over three years, and trading below some intrinsic and analyst estimates, is Amdocs quietly on sale, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth? Most Popular Narrative: 19.5% Undervalued Compared to the last close at $83.77, the most followed narrative points to a higher fair value, built on measured growth and rising profitability. The accelerating adoption of cloud, automation, and AI/ML across telecom and media sectors is driving a multi-year wave of IT stack modernization, with Amdocs winning new large-scale modernization and migration deals in cloud, generative AI, and data services. This is expanding its total addressable market and supporting sustained topline revenue growth. The rapid shift to 5G and next-generation wireless is prompting significant investment from telecom providers in digital transformation and core systems upgrades. Amdocs is capturing this demand through high-visibility managed service contracts (with growth and extensions in Europe, North America, and Asia), thereby boosting recurring revenue and earnings stability. Read the complete narrative. Curious what sits behind this valuation gap? The narrative leans on steady revenue compounding, a clear jump in margins, and a future earnings multiple quite different from today. The detailed earnings path and discount rate do a lot of heavy lifting. Want to see the exact assumptions that make the numbers add up? Result: Fair Value of $104.00 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this story can change fast if big telecom clients pull back on projects, or if cloud and GenAI offerings scale more slowly than analysts expect. Find out about the key risks to this Amdocs narrative.  Build Your Own Amdocs Narrative If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes by starting with Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Amdocs. Looking for more investment ideas? If Amdocs has you thinking more seriously about where you put your money next, do not stop here. Your next strong idea could be one screen away.  Target potential mispricings by scanning these 863 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may be trading below what their cash flows suggest. Ride powerful technology trends by focusing on these 24 AI penny stocks that are building real businesses around artificial intelligence. Boost your income focus by searching through these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer higher yields and established payout histories.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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