Should Forestar Group's Q3 Revenue Beat and Margin Dip Require Action From FOR Investors?

Simply Wall St.01-19

In its past Q3 CY2025 results, Forestar Group reported revenue of US$670.5 million, up 21.6% year on year, and non-GAAP earnings of US$1.70 per share, exceeding analyst expectations despite operating ...

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The combination of stronger-than-expected top-line growth and softer margins points to robust demand for Forestar’s lots but also rising cost pressures that could influence future profitability. Next, we will examine how Forestar’s earnings beat, alongside a softer operating margin, affects the company’s existing investment narrative. Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.AdvertisementForestar Group Investment Narrative RecapTo own Forestar Group, you need to believe in sustained demand for residential lots and the company’s ability to convert its large contracted backlog into consistent earnings, despite margin pressure and customer concentration. The latest quarter’s revenue and EPS beat supports the demand side of that thesis, while the drop in operating margin keeps cost inflation and pricing discipline as the key near term swing factor. Overall, the news does not materially change the biggest current risk, which remains Forestar’s reliance on D.R. Horton. Recent full year 2025 results showed sales of US$1,662.4 million but lower net income of US$167.9 million compared to the prior year, underlining how margin trends are already affecting bottom line outcomes. Viewed alongside the strong Q3 CY2025 performance, this contrast makes the existing lot backlog and integration with D.R. Horton even more important as potential offsets to ongoing cost and margin pressure. However, investors should also be aware that Forestar’s dependence on a single major customer could quickly become more problematic if... Read the full narrative on Forestar Group (it's free!)Forestar Group's narrative projects $1.9 billion revenue and $155.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.8% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decrease of $7.4 million from $162.6 million today.Uncover how Forestar Group's forecasts yield a $32.50 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesFOR 1-Year Stock Price Chart Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide range, from US$7.67 to US$32.50 per share, underlining how far opinions can differ. When you set those views against Forestar’s recent margin compression, it becomes even more important to compare several perspectives before forming expectations about the company’s future performance.Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Forestar Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 19% more than the current price!Build Your Own Forestar Group NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Forestar Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.Our free Forestar Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Forestar Group's overall financial health at a glance.Want Some Alternatives?Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped:We've found 12 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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