Assessing MetLife (MET) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

Simply Wall St.01-19

AdvertisementEvent context for MetLife MetLife (MET) has recently drawn attention after a period of weaker share performance, with the stock showing negative returns over the past month, past 3 months...

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For investors tracking large insurers, this recent stretch stands in contrast to MetLife’s multi year total returns and current profitability metrics. This has prompted a closer look at how the business and valuation line up today. See our latest analysis for MetLife. At a share price of US$76.77, MetLife’s recent 1 month share price return of a 5.88% decline and 7 day share price return of a 3.32% decline point to fading short term momentum. However, the 5 year total shareholder return of 76.08% shows a very different long term picture for those who have held through cycles. If this shift in sentiment has you comparing insurers with other income focused names, it could be a good moment to scan for opportunities among pharma stocks with solid dividends. So, with MetLife trading at US$76.77, showing recent share price weakness but a 5 year total return of 76.08%, and indications of a discount to some valuation estimates, is there a genuine opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 17.4% Undervalued With MetLife last closing at US$76.77 against a narrative fair value of about US$92.93, the current price sits well below that estimate, and the gap is built on specific views about future earnings power and capital-light income streams. Strategic expansion of asset-light, fee-generating businesses (like employee benefits, asset management, and longevity reinsurance), combined with disciplined capital management, supports higher return on equity and more consistent, less capital-intensive earnings growth. Early leadership and scale in growth platforms and partnerships (Chariot Re, PineBridge acquisition, digital embedded insurance platforms in LatAm) allow MetLife to capture outsized share in emerging product and distribution opportunities, enhancing future revenue streams and contributing positively to long-term earnings quality. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what sits behind that earnings power story, and how revenue growth, margin expansion and future P/E assumptions fit together into that valuation? The narrative walks through detailed top line forecasts, a step up in profitability and how a lower future multiple still supports a higher present value. If you are curious which specific earnings and margin path underpins that fair value, the full narrative lays out the numbers in black and white. Result: Fair Value of $92.93 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that story hinges on investment returns and credit quality holding up. Any further strain from commercial mortgage loans or volatile interest rates could quickly challenge those assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this MetLife narrative. Another View: Multiples Paint A Different Picture While the narrative fair value suggests upside, the current P/E of 13.9x is slightly higher than both the peer average of 13.8x and the US insurance industry at 12.6x. At the same time, it sits below a fair ratio of 17.1x, which our model suggests the market could move toward over time. That split hints at some valuation risk if the story disappoints, but also room for a rerating if earnings progress holds. Which side of that trade off do you view as more compelling? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NYSE:MET P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own MetLife Narrative If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer to weigh the data yourself, you can shape your own view in a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your MetLife research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Ready to expand your watchlist? If MetLife has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use focused screeners to spot clear ideas faster instead of scrolling through endless tickers.  Target steady income opportunities by checking out these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may suit a portfolio built around regular cash returns. Spot emerging themes in healthcare by scanning these 110 healthcare AI stocks that connect medical businesses with artificial intelligence. Get ahead of potential mispricing by reviewing these 875 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that might offer prices below their estimated cash flow value.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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