Tractor Supply's (TSCO) Q4 earnings report is unlikely to be a "significant catalyst" for its shares, with investors instead focused on how the retailer guides for 2026, UBS Securities said in a report Thursday.
With Q4 expectations remaining low, the debate among investors has moved to how the company will navigate what it describes as a period of "P&L normalization" in the coming year, UBS said.
Analysts at UBS expect Tractor Supply to issue a wide guidance range for 2026, likely projecting comparable store sales growth between 1% and 4%. While the sell-side consensus currently sits at 3.1%, some buy-side investors expect results closer to 1%, UBS said.
"The net result of this print is likely estimates staying still to moving slightly down," the report said, suggesting that a more premium stock multiple will only come after the company demonstrates consistent results in line with its targets. If the company achieves a 2% comparable growth rate in 2026 with flat operating margins, it could reach earnings per share of about $2.25, UBS said. A stronger 4% growth rate could push that figure to $2.30, UBS added.
UBS has maintained a neutral rating on the stock, and lowered its price target to $57 from $61, citing "a potentially slower-than-expected return to the company's long-term algorithm."
Price: 51.03, Change: +0.30, Percent Change: +0.58
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