A Look At M/I Homes (MHO) Valuation As Recent Returns Show Mixed Momentum

Simply Wall St.01-19

M/I Homes (MHO) has drawn investor attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing mixed returns over the past week, month, and past 3 months as housing demand and sentiment continue ...

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See our latest analysis for M/I Homes. At a share price of $137.16, M/I Homes has given investors a 30 day share price return of 7.45%, while the 3 year total shareholder return of 149.43% and 5 year total shareholder return of 156.81% point to strong longer term compounding even as shorter term momentum has eased recently. If the housing theme has your attention, it can be helpful to broaden your watchlist beyond homebuilders and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other ideas where owners are heavily invested alongside shareholders. With revenue and net income both showing annual declines and the share price sitting below the average analyst target, it is fair to ask: is M/I Homes being undervalued today, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 10.4% Undervalued With M/I Homes last closing at $137.16 versus a narrative fair value of $153, the current price sits below what this widely followed view considers reasonable, setting up a valuation gap that depends on how its earnings and capital returns develop.  Strong balance sheet fundamentals (record-high equity, substantial cash reserves, low net debt, and aggressive share repurchases) provide downside protection and also increase future earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity as demand and deliveries grow.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how a shrinking share count, shifting margins, and a future earnings multiple all contribute to that $153 figure? The full narrative explains the earnings path, revenue trajectory, and valuation bridge that would need to align for this pricing gap to narrow. Result: Fair Value of $153 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, softer demand and rising inventory exposure, along with mortgage rate buydowns pressuring margins, could limit how quickly any perceived valuation gap closes. Find out about the key risks to this M/I Homes narrative. Another View: SWS DCF Model Flags Overvaluation While the popular narrative points to a 10.4% discount to fair value at $153, the SWS DCF model comes to a very different conclusion. On that framework, M/I Homes at $137.16 screens as expensive versus an estimated fair value of $38.06. This raises the question of which story you trust more. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. MHO Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out M/I Homes for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 873 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own M/I Homes Narrative If you see the numbers differently or simply want to test your own assumptions, you can build a complete M/I Homes story yourself in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your M/I Homes research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you risk missing out on other opportunities that might fit you even better, so broaden your search before you decide.  Target potential mispricings by scanning these 873 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that align with your view on cash flow strength and pricing. Ride powerful tech themes by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence growth stories. Strengthen your income focus by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer yields above 3% alongside equity exposure.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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