MW These 3 factors matter the most now for investors in AI, crypto and tech stocks
By Jurica Dujmovic
Winning companies will be able to pass a stress test for sustainability, regulatory compliance and financial strength
Across the AI, crypto and tech markets, the speculative phase is over. It's time for a stress test. In 2026, investors in these sectors will value companies' returns, adoption of regulations and results. These three factors matter most:
1. Balance-sheet strength: Companies funding innovation through existing cash flows will be able to access capital more readily than cash burners. When return on investment is scrutinized, financial resilience becomes a competitive advantage.
2. Regulatory clarity: Two important pieces of legislation, the Genius Act in the U.S. and MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) in Europe, provided the compliance structures that brought institutions into crypto markets. AI governance frameworks will have similar effects, defining which companies can operate at scale.
3. Real economic value: Whether it's AI-facilitated cost cuts, reduced settlement times due to stablecoins or improved liquidity via tokenization, business cases must be demonstrable. Markets no longer reward future promises without current value.
In 2026, the winners won't be companies with the best product demos or highest valuations. Instead, they will boast sustainable economics, regulatory compliance and balance sheets strong enough to survive the stress tests ahead.
Five specific shifts will be the hallmarks of this transformation:
1. AI capital: Only some can play this game
Stock picking has become essential in a space where most participants are burning capital without returns.
The AI investment landscape has bifurcated. According to Goldman Sachs, hyperscalers are projected to spend $527 billion on AI capex in 2026. McKinsey projects $5.2 trillion to $7.9 trillion in total AI infrastructure investment by 2030. But investors no longer treat AI companies as a monolithic group.
Since June 2025, stock-price correlation among major AI players has dropped to 20%, from 80%. The market now rewards companies for showing clear capex-to-revenue links while rotating from debt-fueled buildouts without earnings.
The economics data is stark: AI facilities that came online in 2025 will face roughly $40 billion in annual depreciation costs while generating just $15 billion to $20 billion in revenue at current utilization. OpenAI, for example, generated $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, but posted a $13.5 billion loss.
It's important to point out that these aren't temporary growing pains. An MIT report found 95% of organizations implementing generative AI saw zero ROI despite $30 billion to $40 billion in spending. Smaller players whose AI spending is debt-fueled face tougher conditions. Kyndryl has reported that 61% of CEOs are under pressure to demonstrate AI returns.
In 2026, one thing is certain: Investors can no longer treat AI as a sector play. Stock picking has become essential in a space where most participants are burning capital without returns.
2. Crypto becomes financial infrastructure
Crypto has moved from speculative asset to payment infrastructure faster than most analysts expected. The Genius Act, passed in the summer of 2025 with bipartisan congressional support, established federal frameworks for payment stablecoins with reserve requirements and regulatory oversight. The impact was immediate: Stablecoins surpassed $250 billion in market capitalization by year-end and now account for more than 30% of on-chain transactions.
Transaction volume rose to more than $700 billion monthly throughout 2025. Circle (CRCL) launched Arc, an enterprise blockchain for regulated payments. Germany's BaFin approved its first euro-denominated (EURUSD) stablecoin under MiCA, issued by a Deutsche Bank-backed $(DB)$ consortium.
Financial institutions are now forming consortia for cross-border settlement. Regulatory alignment between the U.S. and Europe has removed jurisdictional uncertainty keeping institutional capital sidelined.
The investor opportunity in crypto infrastructure has a time limit. As payments become commoditized and custody solutions standardize, margins will compress. 2026 represents the window before infrastructure becomes utility-like.
3. Digital assets influence geopolitics
Governments with bitcoin exposure have incentives to support rather than restrict crypto.
Crypto's transformation in 2025 had a second dimension: geopolitical strategy. On March 6, President Donald Trump established the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve via executive order. The directive consolidated all government-held bitcoin (BTCUSD) from forfeiture proceedings with a mandate to maintain rather than sell.
This wasn't an isolated case. By mid-2025, 27 countries had bitcoin exposure, with 13 more pursuing legislation. New Hampshire became the first state to establish a bitcoin reserve in May, authorizing up to 5% of state funds for bitcoin investment. Texas and Arizona followed.
Internationally, the Czech National Bank considered holding up to 5% of its EUR140 billion reserves in bitcoin. Bhutan accumulated $750 million in bitcoin through sovereign mining operations, which is 28% of the country's GDP. El Salvador maintained more than 6,102 bitcoins in reserves, joining a broader sovereign shift toward digital assets in wealth strategy.
When nation-states hold bitcoin as reserve assets, regulatory risk fundamentally changes. Governments with bitcoin exposure have incentives to support rather than restrict crypto, reducing tail risk for private investors.
4. Crypto regulation attracts institutional investment
Beyond stablecoins and sovereign holdings, regulation unlocked a third crypto transformation: the tokenization of traditional assets.
Tokenization of real-world assets exceeded $30 billion in the third-quarter of 2025 - a tenfold increase from 2022's $2.9 billion. Private credit accounts for 61% of tokenized assets.
Growth was enabled, not hindered, by regulation. The Genius Act and Europe's MiCA provided compliance structures institutions needed. BlackRock's $(BLK)$ BUIDL fund, which tokenizes U.S. Treasurys, grew to $1.87 billion from $615 million in one year. Siemens (XE:SIE) $(SIEGY)$ issued a EUR300 million corporate bond on blockchain with two-hour settlement, versus weeks traditionally.
Compliance-first platforms such as Stellar's adoption of ERC-3643, embedding transfer restrictions directly into tokens, enable institutional participation without regulatory uncertainty. The opportunity shifted from speculative token appreciation to infrastructure ownership. Custody solutions, tokenization platforms and compliance tools are now viable institutional investments because regulatory frameworks define operating parameters.
Most analysis focuses on what's being tokenized. Investors should focus on where it's being tokenized. The platform layer matters more than the tokenized assets. When BlackRock's $1.87 billion sits on one platform and Siemens's bonds on another, interoperability determines whether tokenization creates or destroys liquidity. Early platform-standardization winners capture outsized value.
5. Investors need broad opportunities - not narrow bets
AI infrastructure, crypto regulation and tokenization converge in ways traditional sector analysis fails to comprehend. A data-center company might serve both AI workloads and tokenized asset platforms. Energy firms with AI power agreements could benefit from bitcoin mining during off-peak demand. Financial institutions issuing stablecoins need AI compliance monitoring and blockchain infrastructure.
The 2026 opportunity lies in identifying companies at these intersections: platform providers building multiuse infrastructure, compliance technology serving both AI and tokenization, and financial infrastructure enabling settlement across traditional and digital assets.
This requires expanding analytical frameworks to account for cross-domain effects. When the U.S. establishes a bitcoin reserve, it affects energy infrastructure. When stablecoin regulation is passed, it changes cross-border payment economics. When AI spending faces ROI scrutiny, the entire compute supply chain responds.
The AI hype of 2023 or 2021's crypto speculation won't repeat in 2026. Markets now demand accountability: proof that AI spending generates productivity, evidence that tokenization delivers efficiency, and demonstration that crypto serves real economic needs.
More: These stocks are the biggest winners as TSMC earnings supercharge the AI trade
Also read: I refused to invest in Tesla for years - but now's the time to bet on Elon Musk
-Jurica Dujmovic
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 16, 2026 13:25 ET (18:25 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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