Is It Too Late To Consider Morgan Stanley (MS) After Its Strong Five Year Run?

Simply Wall St.01-18

If you are wondering whether Morgan Stanley shares still offer value after a strong run, this article walks through what the current price might be telling you. The stock last closed at US$189.09, ...

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The stock last closed at US$189.09, with returns of 1.5% over 7 days, 8.2% over 30 days, 4.0% year to date, 41.0% over 1 year, 117.4% over 3 years and 199.2% over 5 years. Recent coverage around Morgan Stanley has focused on its role as a major global financial institution and on how market conditions influence investor appetite for large banks. This context helps frame why the share price and trading activity around the stock have been in focus for many investors. Morgan Stanley currently scores a 3 out of 6 valuation check score, which means the stock screens as undervalued on half of the checks used. Next, we will look at what different valuation methods suggest about the price, and then finish with a way of thinking about value that can tie all of these approaches together.  Morgan Stanley delivered 41.0% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Capital Markets industry. AdvertisementApproach 1: Morgan Stanley Excess Returns Analysis The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit Morgan Stanley is expected to earn over and above the return that shareholders require, and then ties that back to what a share could be worth today. For Morgan Stanley, the starting point is book value of $62.98 per share and a stable book value estimate of $72.80 per share, both based on analyst expectations for the balance sheet. Analysts also expect stable earnings of $12.39 per share, drawn from weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 13 analysts, with an average Return on Equity of 17.01%. The model assumes a cost of equity of $7.01 per share. This implies an excess return of $5.38 per share above that required return. By projecting these excess returns over time and capitalizing them, the Excess Returns model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $157.20 per share. Compared to the recent share price of US$189.09, this intrinsic value indicates that Morgan Stanley screens as around 20.3% overvalued on this approach. Result: OVERVALUED Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Morgan Stanley may be overvalued by 20.3%. Discover 863 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. MS Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Morgan Stanley. Approach 2: Morgan Stanley Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like Morgan Stanley, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to relate what you pay per share to the earnings the business generates. It helps you see how many dollars investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. What counts as a \"normal\" P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risk. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower P/E. Morgan Stanley currently trades on a P/E of 18.42x. That sits below the Capital Markets industry average P/E of 25.78x and below a peer group average of 30.62x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Morgan Stanley is 19.52x. This reflects what its P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks. The Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it attempts to adjust for differences in growth, risk profile and profitability. Compared with the current P/E of 18.42x, the Fair Ratio of 19.52x suggests Morgan Stanley shares screen as modestly undervalued on this metric. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:MS P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1445 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Morgan Stanley Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St’s Community page let you turn your view of Morgan Stanley into a clear story that links its business drivers to a forecast and then to a fair value. The platform updates that story automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive, and helps you decide what to do by comparing your fair value with the current price. For example, one investor might build a Narrative that reflects the higher fair value estimate of about US$169.52 based on expectations around revenue growth, margins and share repurchases. Another might focus on risks like competition, regulation and integration challenges and lean closer to the lower analyst target of US$122. Yet both are using the same tool to express very different perspectives. Do you think there's more to the story for Morgan Stanley? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:MS 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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