Is It Too Late To Consider AppLovin (APP) After Its Strong 1-Year Rally?

Simply Wall St.01-18

If you are wondering whether AppLovin’s share price still makes sense after a big run, or if the value case is starting to look stretched, this article is for you. The stock has pulled back recently, ...

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The stock has pulled back recently, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-app/applovin/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-applovin-app-after-its-strong-1-y\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late To Consider AppLovin (APP) After Its Strong 1-Year Rally?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Too Late To Consider AppLovin (APP) After Its Strong 1-Year Rally?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-18 00:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-app/applovin/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-applovin-app-after-its-strong-1-y><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether AppLovin’s share price still makes sense after a big run, or if the value case is starting to look stretched, this article is for you. The stock has pulled back recently, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-app/applovin/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-applovin-app-after-its-strong-1-y\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1861215975.USD","symbol_name":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-app/applovin/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-applovin-app-after-its-strong-1-y","article_id":"2604923149","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/8041000-choice2-main-header/1585186556238"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-app/applovin/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-applovin-app-after-its-strong-1-y","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2604923149","pubTimestamp":1768667419,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether AppLovin’s share price still makes sense after a big run, or if the value case is starting to look stretched, this article is for you.\nThe stock has pulled back recently, with a 12.2% decline over the last 7 days and a 13.4% decline over the last 30 days, although the 1 year return sits at 66.1% and the 3 year return is very large.\nRecent headlines have focused on AppLovin’s position in mobile app marketing and software, with attention on how its tools are being...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4608":"AI应用概念股","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4539":"次新股","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4023":"应用软件","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","APP":"AppLovin Corporation","BK4613":"AI应用软件","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"translate_title":"AppLovin(APP)在经历了一年的强劲反弹后，现在考虑是否为时已晚？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"APP":1.98},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether AppLovin’s share price still makes sense after a big run, or if the value case is starting to look stretched, this article is for you. The stock has pulled back recently, with a 12.2% decline over the last 7 days and a 13.4% decline over the last 30 days, although the 1 year return sits at 66.1% and the 3 year return is very large. Recent headlines have focused on AppLovin’s position in mobile app marketing and software, with attention on how its tools are being used by developers to manage user acquisition and monetization. This context has kept interest high around the stock as investors weigh how its business model lines up with the latest share price. Simply Wall St’s valuation checks currently give AppLovin a 1 out of 6 score for being undervalued. Next, we will look at what different valuation approaches say about the stock, and then finish with a broader way of thinking about valuation that goes beyond the numbers alone.  AppLovin scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: AppLovin Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A DCF model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today’s value. For AppLovin, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at about $3.40b. Analyst based and extrapolated projections used in this model include free cash flow of $4.79b in 2026 and $8.82b in 2030, all in $. Beyond the explicit analyst period, Simply Wall St extends the forecasts using its own assumptions. This is common practice when only a few years of analyst estimates are available. On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $462.80 per share. Compared with the current share price, the model output implies the stock is 22.9% overvalued, so the valuation currently sits above the DCF estimate. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests AppLovin may be overvalued by 22.9%. Discover 863 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. APP Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for AppLovin. Approach 2: AppLovin Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like AppLovin, the P/E ratio is a practical way to see how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It ties directly to what the business is currently generating, which many investors find easier to relate to than long range cash flow models. In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk tend to support a higher P/E. Slower growth and higher risk usually call for a lower, more conservative multiple. That is why it helps to compare a stock’s P/E with sensible benchmarks rather than in isolation. AppLovin currently trades on a P/E of 65.91x. This is above the Software industry average of 31.60x and also above the peer average of 39.41x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for AppLovin is 54.73x, which is its proprietary view of what a more appropriate P/E might be after considering factors like earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk profile. Because the Fair Ratio adjusts for these company specific features, it can be more useful than a simple comparison with peers or the wider industry. On this basis, AppLovin’s current P/E is higher than the Fair Ratio, which suggests the shares may be overvalued on this metric. Result: OVERVALUED NasdaqGS:APP P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1445 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your AppLovin Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. These are short, clear stories you create about AppLovin that link your view of its business to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, then into a Fair Value that you can compare with the current price to decide whether it looks attractive or not. All of this happens within Simply Wall St’s Community page, where Narratives are kept up to date as new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a very optimistic AppLovin Narrative around a Fair Value of about $737.21 per share, while another might lean on a more cautious view closer to $250. The platform simply shows you how each of those stories translates into numbers so you can choose the one that best matches your own thinking. Do you think there's more to the story for AppLovin? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:APP 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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