Assessing Meritage Homes (MTH) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum And Undervaluation Signals

Simply Wall St.01-18

AdvertisementWhy Meritage Homes Stock Is on Investors’ Radar Meritage Homes (MTH) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading, with the share price at $76.15 and mixed returns across different time...

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This suggests shorter term...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"MTH":"Meritage Homes Corp","BK4088":"住宅建筑","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","MTH.AU":"Mithril Silver and Gold Ltd"},"translate_title":"在近期股价势头和低估信号后评估Meritage Homes(MTH)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MTH":1.5,"MTH.AU":1.5},"content_text":"AdvertisementWhy Meritage Homes Stock Is on Investors’ Radar Meritage Homes (MTH) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading, with the share price at $76.15 and mixed returns across different time frames, including a modest decline over the past year. See our latest analysis for Meritage Homes. The recent 1 month share price return of 11.51% and 90 day gain of 8.57%, alongside a 14.98% year to date rise, contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 3.15%. This suggests shorter term momentum has picked up even as longer term holders have seen more muted results. If Meritage Homes has you reassessing the homebuilding space, it could also be a good moment to broaden your watchlist and check out auto manufacturers. With Meritage Homes trading at $76.15, sitting below an analyst price target of $85.38 and carrying a solid value score, the key question is whether the market is overlooking potential upside or already reflecting expectations for future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 8.4% Undervalued With Meritage Homes last closing at $76.15 against a narrative fair value of $83.13, the current setup hinges on how future earnings and margins evolve.  Disciplined capital allocation, including substantial and opportunistic share buybacks enabled by a strong balance sheet and reduced land spend, signals confidence in undervaluation and is likely to drive higher EPS through lower share count, especially as industry consolidation trends favor larger, efficient builders like Meritage.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what earnings path and profit margins sit behind that fair value, and why the projected P/E depends on a higher future multiple than today? The full narrative lays out the specific revenue run rate, margin profile, and valuation assumptions that need to line up before that price makes sense. Result: Fair Value of $83.13 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this depends on affordability holding up for entry level buyers and on land and development costs not squeezing margins more than analysts currently expect. Find out about the key risks to this Meritage Homes narrative.  Build Your Own Meritage Homes Narrative If you see the story differently or prefer to sift through the numbers yourself, you can build your own Meritage Homes view in just a few minutes by starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Meritage Homes research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Meritage Homes has caught your attention, do not stop there. Broaden your opportunity set and let the Simply Wall St Screener surface fresh ideas for you.  Spot potential mispricings by zeroing in on these 871 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where expected cash flows and current prices tell very different stories. Identify technology-related companies by scanning these 24 AI penny stocks that are closely linked to artificial intelligence across multiple industries. Strengthen your income watchlist by filtering for these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that focus on companies with yields above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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