MW Here's everything investors need to know about the historic silver rally in 10 charts
By Joseph Adinolfi
Booming demand from speculators and industrial players alike has created the 'perfect storm' for the white metal
Silver's enormous rally was one of the biggest stories in markets in 2025 - and the pace has only quickened in 2026.
The white metal is red-hot right now.
Silver's (SI00) stunning rally - part of a broader move higher in prices of precious metals like gold (GC00) and platinum (PL00) - was one of the biggest stories in markets in 2025.
What had been a powerful, momentum-driven advance went parabolic in December, with the price of the most active futures contract rising more than 24%, its biggest one-month gain since July 2020, Dow Jones Market Data showed. That capped off a gain of more than 140% in 2025, the best yearly performance on record.
The pace has only quickened in 2026. Since Jan. 1, silver prices are up more than 25%, and some on Wall Street believe silver could soon eclipse $100 an ounce for the first time ever.
Many factors have contributed to silver's explosive rally. According to Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, both industrial demand and speculative interest have played a role.
That sets this time apart from earlier examples of silver mania - like when the Hunt Brothers notoriously tried to corner the market in 1980, he noted.
"Those [rallies] were being driven by speculators," Haberkorn said during an interview with MarketWatch. "This is being driven by governments, central banks [and] large sovereign-wealth funds. Also, people who actually use silver are trying to accumulate more of it."
Silver is a key component in solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries and electronics more broadly. As demand surges, companies are confronting a global supply situation that is increasingly fractured and inadequate. Recently, China has been tightening export controls of the metal to ensure it has enough for domestic production, leading to a premium for silver traded in Shanghai. Silver was also added to the U.S. critical minerals list in 2025, which has helped discourage investors and others from moving supplies out of the U.S.
In other words, investors are seeing "a perfect storm" for higher prices, Haberkorn said.
Plenty of other factors are contributing to silver's run higher as well. Here is what investors should be watching.
Realized volatility explodes higher
As silver prices have marched relentlessly higher, the magnitude of the metal's daily swings has increased.
Wild swings on a daily basis have helped push 30-day realized volatility to one of the highest levels on record.
Prices for March Silver futures fell by more than 4% on Friday. That was the seventh swing of 4% or more since the start of 2026, FactSet data showed.
Futures curve is in backwardation
Surging demand for physical silver has pushed the market for the white metal out of whack.
As of Friday, prices for spot silver traded in London - the hub for physical metals - were slightly higher than the price of the futures contract that expires in January. Metals futures are traded in New York, the hub for the global metals derivatives market.
In commodity markets, this unusual dynamic where spot prices eclipse futures prices is known as backwardation. It means investors are demanding such a high convenience yield to hold the physical commodity that it is dwarfing costs for storage and other inputs that are usually factored into futures prices.
"This means that the market is very tight," said James Steel, chief precious-metals analyst at HSBC Securities.
Crossing the pond
Speculative fervor and a supply deficit of newly mined silver have contributed to the run-up in prices.
But worries about a looming trade clampdown in the U.S. helped prices start rolling higher, HSBC's Steel said. Evidence of this can be found in the supply data for vaults operated by Comex: Beginning early last year, there was a large migration of supplies of physical silver out of the vaults in London and into the vaults in New York. The first chart below shows how this impacted supplies held in New York.
Meanwhile, data on holdings from the London Bullion Market Association show the migration away from the city's vaults.
"There was a threat of tariffs, and it resulted in the migration of hundreds of millions of ounces of silver into New York. The bulk of this has not gone back to London, despite the fact that tariffs weren't applied," Steel said.
"Because the market has been drained of liquidity and drained of physicality, if you want to secure physical silver, you have to pay up," he added.
Gold-to-silver price ratio lowest since 2011
Metals markets have a distinct psychology. Oftentimes, when one sees gold prices start to move higher, it is only a matter of time before silver and other precious metals give chase.
That is exactly how this most recent rally in precious metals has unfolded.
"What happens on bullion desks is that the gold market goes up $50 or $100, and client XYZ, who hasn't bought enough of it, calls the desk and asks, 'Should I buy silver?'" Steel said. "They don't know anything about silver, they don't know anything about gold - but because gold has moved and silver hasn't, they think they can grab the lag."
The chart above shows that, in the span of a year, silver has gone from being very cheap, relative to gold, to very expensive.
Some have chalked this up to speculators piling in, driven by "FOMO" - or the "fear of missing out."
"Silver is swept up in FOMO," said Clem Chambers, CEO of Online Blockchain. "FOMO-ers are exit liquidity."
Retail piles into silver ETFs
Research shops that specifically monitor activity by independent investors have reported a huge rush of buying over the past month or so.
According to the latest data from Vanda Research, small-time amateur investors have helped to turn silver into the most crowded commodity trade in the market, with 30-day retail inflows recently hitting a record of $921.8 million.
The data below is gleaned from the VandaTrack proprietary data set, which uses custom models to identify retail trades in silver-linked ETFs.
Money has been flowing into popular products like the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF AGQ, which aims to amplify daily moves in silver, as well as the Sprott Physical Silver Trust PSLV and iShares Silver Trust SLV, which allow investors to gain exposure to spot silver and silver futures.
Also, more recently, inflows into the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF ZSL have started to pick up, even as the ETF has fallen by more than 90% over the past year.
"This is an asset that has doubled in value in roughly three months," said Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth. "I can understand why investors want to play both sides of the trade after such an extraordinary move."
In addition to surging demand from industrial players, the price of silver has also benefited from escalating geopolitical concerns, Martin Adams said. Some have said uneasiness with heavy government debt loads in the developed world has contributed as well, a concept referred to as the "debasement trade."
Supply and demand
The imbalance between silver supply and silver demand became particularly acute in 2025, according to HSBC's Steel, and figures from the Silver Institute showed a supply deficit of 230 million ounces.
But based on Steel's models, that deficit is expected to shrink in 2026 and 2027 - as the run-up in prices forces industrial buyers to be more economical, while denting demand for silver jewelry.
HSBC silver supply-and-demand model
Category 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 forecast 2027 forecast Mine production 851 837 784 831 838 811 812 813 824 830 Government sales 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 Old silver scrap 156 162 164 181 191 184 194 197 206 210 Hedging -1 14 8 -4 -18 -12 -4 11 13 11 Total supply 1007 1014 957 1010 1014 986 1011 1022 1044 1052 Industrial and decorative 526 525 512 564 592 657 681 665 660 620 Photography 31 31 27 28 28 27 26 24 24 24 Jewelry 203 202 151 182 235 203 209 199 184 175 Silverware 67 61 31 41 74 55 54 48 45 42 Physical investment (coins/bars) 166 187 208 284 338 244 191 182 201 210 Exchange-traded funds -8 90 282 14 -138 -48 17 134 70 40 Total fabrication 976 1006 929 1099 1267 1186 1161 1118 1114 1071 Total demand 968 1096 1211 1113 1129 1138 1178 1252 1184 1111
MW Here's everything investors need to know about the historic silver rally in 10 charts
By Joseph Adinolfi
Booming demand from speculators and industrial players alike has created the 'perfect storm' for the white metal
Silver's enormous rally was one of the biggest stories in markets in 2025 - and the pace has only quickened in 2026.
The white metal is red-hot right now.
Silver's (SI00) stunning rally - part of a broader move higher in prices of precious metals like gold (GC00) and platinum (PL00) - was one of the biggest stories in markets in 2025.
What had been a powerful, momentum-driven advance went parabolic in December, with the price of the most active futures contract rising more than 24%, its biggest one-month gain since July 2020, Dow Jones Market Data showed. That capped off a gain of more than 140% in 2025, the best yearly performance on record.
The pace has only quickened in 2026. Since Jan. 1, silver prices are up more than 25%, and some on Wall Street believe silver could soon eclipse $100 an ounce for the first time ever.
Many factors have contributed to silver's explosive rally. According to Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, both industrial demand and speculative interest have played a role.
That sets this time apart from earlier examples of silver mania - like when the Hunt Brothers notoriously tried to corner the market in 1980, he noted.
"Those [rallies] were being driven by speculators," Haberkorn said during an interview with MarketWatch. "This is being driven by governments, central banks [and] large sovereign-wealth funds. Also, people who actually use silver are trying to accumulate more of it."
Silver is a key component in solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries and electronics more broadly. As demand surges, companies are confronting a global supply situation that is increasingly fractured and inadequate. Recently, China has been tightening export controls of the metal to ensure it has enough for domestic production, leading to a premium for silver traded in Shanghai. Silver was also added to the U.S. critical minerals list in 2025, which has helped discourage investors and others from moving supplies out of the U.S.
In other words, investors are seeing "a perfect storm" for higher prices, Haberkorn said.
Plenty of other factors are contributing to silver's run higher as well. Here is what investors should be watching.
Realized volatility explodes higher
As silver prices have marched relentlessly higher, the magnitude of the metal's daily swings has increased.
Wild swings on a daily basis have helped push 30-day realized volatility to one of the highest levels on record.
Prices for March Silver futures fell by more than 4% on Friday. That was the seventh swing of 4% or more since the start of 2026, FactSet data showed.
Futures curve is in backwardation
Surging demand for physical silver has pushed the market for the white metal out of whack.
As of Friday, prices for spot silver traded in London - the hub for physical metals - were slightly higher than the price of the futures contract that expires in January. Metals futures are traded in New York, the hub for the global metals derivatives market.
In commodity markets, this unusual dynamic where spot prices eclipse futures prices is known as backwardation. It means investors are demanding such a high convenience yield to hold the physical commodity that it is dwarfing costs for storage and other inputs that are usually factored into futures prices.
"This means that the market is very tight," said James Steel, chief precious-metals analyst at HSBC Securities.
Crossing the pond
Speculative fervor and a supply deficit of newly mined silver have contributed to the run-up in prices.
But worries about a looming trade clampdown in the U.S. helped prices start rolling higher, HSBC's Steel said. Evidence of this can be found in the supply data for vaults operated by Comex: Beginning early last year, there was a large migration of supplies of physical silver out of the vaults in London and into the vaults in New York. The first chart below shows how this impacted supplies held in New York.
Meanwhile, data on holdings from the London Bullion Market Association show the migration away from the city's vaults.
"There was a threat of tariffs, and it resulted in the migration of hundreds of millions of ounces of silver into New York. The bulk of this has not gone back to London, despite the fact that tariffs weren't applied," Steel said.
"Because the market has been drained of liquidity and drained of physicality, if you want to secure physical silver, you have to pay up," he added.
Gold-to-silver price ratio lowest since 2011
Metals markets have a distinct psychology. Oftentimes, when one sees gold prices start to move higher, it is only a matter of time before silver and other precious metals give chase.
That is exactly how this most recent rally in precious metals has unfolded.
"What happens on bullion desks is that the gold market goes up $50 or $100, and client XYZ, who hasn't bought enough of it, calls the desk and asks, 'Should I buy silver?'" Steel said. "They don't know anything about silver, they don't know anything about gold - but because gold has moved and silver hasn't, they think they can grab the lag."
The chart above shows that, in the span of a year, silver has gone from being very cheap, relative to gold, to very expensive.
Some have chalked this up to speculators piling in, driven by "FOMO" - or the "fear of missing out."
"Silver is swept up in FOMO," said Clem Chambers, CEO of Online Blockchain. "FOMO-ers are exit liquidity."
Retail piles into silver ETFs
Research shops that specifically monitor activity by independent investors have reported a huge rush of buying over the past month or so.
According to the latest data from Vanda Research, small-time amateur investors have helped to turn silver into the most crowded commodity trade in the market, with 30-day retail inflows recently hitting a record of $921.8 million.
The data below is gleaned from the VandaTrack proprietary data set, which uses custom models to identify retail trades in silver-linked ETFs.
Money has been flowing into popular products like the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF AGQ, which aims to amplify daily moves in silver, as well as the Sprott Physical Silver Trust PSLV and iShares Silver Trust SLV, which allow investors to gain exposure to spot silver and silver futures.
Also, more recently, inflows into the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF ZSL have started to pick up, even as the ETF has fallen by more than 90% over the past year.
"This is an asset that has doubled in value in roughly three months," said Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth. "I can understand why investors want to play both sides of the trade after such an extraordinary move."
In addition to surging demand from industrial players, the price of silver has also benefited from escalating geopolitical concerns, Martin Adams said. Some have said uneasiness with heavy government debt loads in the developed world has contributed as well, a concept referred to as the "debasement trade."
Supply and demand
The imbalance between silver supply and silver demand became particularly acute in 2025, according to HSBC's Steel, and figures from the Silver Institute showed a supply deficit of 230 million ounces.
But based on Steel's models, that deficit is expected to shrink in 2026 and 2027 - as the run-up in prices forces industrial buyers to be more economical, while denting demand for silver jewelry.
HSBC silver supply-and-demand model
Category 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 forecast 2027 forecast Mine production 851 837 784 831 838 811 812 813 824 830 Government sales 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 Old silver scrap 156 162 164 181 191 184 194 197 206 210 Hedging -1 14 8 -4 -18 -12 -4 11 13 11 Total supply 1007 1014 957 1010 1014 986 1011 1022 1044 1052 Industrial and decorative 526 525 512 564 592 657 681 665 660 620 Photography 31 31 27 28 28 27 26 24 24 24 Jewelry 203 202 151 182 235 203 209 199 184 175 Silverware 67 61 31 41 74 55 54 48 45 42 Physical investment (coins/bars) 166 187 208 284 338 244 191 182 201 210 Exchange-traded funds -8 90 282 14 -138 -48 17 134 70 40 Total fabrication 976 1006 929 1099 1267 1186 1161 1118 1114 1071 Total demand 968 1096 1211 1113 1129 1138 1178 1252 1184 1111
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
January 17, 2026 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
MW Here's everything investors need to know about -2-
Market balance 31 -82 -254 -89 -115 -200 -167 -230 -140 -59 Market balance ex-gov't stock sales 32 -83 -255 -91 -117 -201 -168 -201 -141 -60 Price average (USD/oz) 15.7 16.2 20.55 25.14 21.8 23.4 28.29 45 68.25 57 Source: Silver Institute, HSBC forecasts; Note: figures in millions of ounces
Futures traders are long
Speculators in the futures market remain overwhelmingly long silver, according to weekly data on trader positioning published by the CFTC. Meanwhile, short interest remains notably low, HSBC's Steel noted.
Options traders are betting on big gains
Options traders have also taken an interest in silver.
RJO Futures' Haberkorn pointed out that open interest in out-of-the-money strikes on silver options has surged.
Each contract controls 5,000 ounces of silver. At Friday's prices, that would mean these contracts alone have a notional value of more than $182 million, by MarketWatch's calculations.
That doesn't necessarily mean silver will make it to $125 by April. Signs of extreme bullishness among speculators often suggest that a rally might be due for a pullback, HSBC's Steel said.
But, according to Haberkorn, it appears a handful of investors are making big bets that the price surge will continue.
Moving averages
In a sign of how historically dramatic the rally in silver has been, futures prices have reached levels above some widely followed trend trackers that haven't been seen since the 1980s.
Silver futures traded earlier this week 46.7% above the 50-day moving average, a metric many on Wall Street use as a guide to the short-term trend. The last time silver futures traded that far above that technical level, according to a MarketWatch analysis of FactSet data, was April 1987 - at a time when the U.S. dollar DXY was sinking, inflation was rising and the Iran-Iraq War was escalating.
Futures also traded as much as 105.9% above the 200-day moving average, which is seen as a key long-term trend tracker. The last time that happened was in January and February of 1980, when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market.
Silver prices had another strong week, rising more than 11%, even if they ended on a down note. Futures for March delivery, the most active contract, settled at $88.537 an ounce on Friday, off $3.81, or 4.1%.
Myra P. Saefong, Tomi Kilgore and Mike DeStefano contributed.
-Joseph Adinolfi
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 17, 2026 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments