A Look At Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) Valuation As Dividend Yield And Well Expansion Raise Questions

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AdvertisementWhy Northern Oil and Gas is on income investors’ radar Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) is drawing attention as investors weigh its sizable dividend against a growth plan centered on expanding ...

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This mix of high current income, rising production interests, and questions about dividend sustainability is prompting closer scrutiny of the stock, especially as energy sector uncertainty keeps risk and reward tightly linked. See our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas. At a share price of $22.56, Northern Oil and Gas has seen a 7 day share price return of 4.06% and a 90 day share price return of 4.49%. Its 1 year total shareholder return is a 42.64% loss and its 5 year total shareholder return is a 152.38% gain, which suggests recent momentum is modest compared with a much stronger long term record. If this mix of income and energy exposure has your attention, it could be a good moment to widen your search with aerospace and defense stocks as another way to uncover differentiated cash flow stories. With an 8.2% dividend yield, an intrinsic value estimate that sits above the current US$22.56 share price, and recent weak 1 year returns, you have to ask: is this a mispriced income play, or is the market already baking in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 26.5% Undervalued The most followed narrative places Northern Oil and Gas' fair value at US$30.70, above the recent US$22.56 share price. This puts the spotlight firmly on the assumptions behind that gap.  The analysts have a consensus price target of $33.7 for Northern Oil and Gas based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $50.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.  Read the complete narrative. Revenue growth that is modest on paper, compressing margins, and a higher future earnings multiple all sit at the core of this valuation story. Curious which assumptions matter most for that US$30.70 fair value and how a 7.88% discount rate and share count changes tie together in these forecasts? The full narrative lays out the earnings path that needs to materialise for this pricing gap to close. Result: Fair Value of $30.70 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, shorter term cash flow pressure from weaker gas and NGL realizations, along with reliance on acquisitions for growth, could easily challenge that undervaluation story. Find out about the key risks to this Northern Oil and Gas narrative.  Build Your Own Northern Oil and Gas Narrative If you see the setup differently or prefer to work directly with the numbers, you can build and stress test your own thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Northern Oil and Gas research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you are weighing Northern Oil and Gas, it is worth lining it up against other clear setups so you do not miss opportunities that better fit your goals.  Spot potential value with strong cash generation by scanning these 868 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may offer more compelling cash flow profiles at current prices. Back future facing themes by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence and related technologies. Add income oriented ideas to your watchlist by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that focus on higher yielding companies.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Northern Oil and Gas might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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