A change in Venezuelan crude exports to the U.S. from China could boost already high oil tanker rates over the near to midterm, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday.
The credit-ratings firm said a U.S. plan to receive and control Venezuela's oil exports would replace "shadow tankers"--a clandestine network of ships used by sanctioned sanction such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela--with the mainstream fleets.
President Trump earlier this month said Venezuela will provide the U.S. with up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude oil and directed Energy Secretary
Chris Wright to control the country's blockaded oil sales "indefinitely." Fitch said that U.S. arrangement implies that Venezuelan oil exports will start to be carried on mainstream tankers. Venezuela produced 0.8% of global crude oil in November and accounted for around 1% of the world's seaborne oil transportation, with most of which shipped to China, Fitch added.
Still, global oil volumes are unlikely to change quickly as any significant increase in Venezuelan oil output will take "quite a long time," Fitch said.
The ratings agency also said oil from Canada and other South American countries being displaced by the new Venezuelan crude flow would need to be transported by tankers, most likely to China, and that would also contribute to higher transportation rates.
This redirection of Venezuelan oil would be supportive for medium-size tankers, while any increase in shipments to China from alternative regions such as the
Middle East will support demand for very large crude carriers, Fitch said. The ratings agency said tanker rates have already risen from recent geopolitical developments in Venezuela and Iran. It said VLCC one-year time charter rates rose to more than $60,000/day in December and were materially higher than most of last year. Suezmax rates have been high at more than $45,000/day since November.
Fitch, however, said a possible resumption of transit through the Suez Canal is a key downside risk for global freight rates for tankers. Most shipping operators are still being cautious and shifting back to the route gradually following repeated attacks on shipping by Yemen's Houthi militants since late 2023.
Any return to normal traffic through the Suez Canal could more than offset any increase higher tanker rates caused by the redirection of Venezuelan oil, Fitch said.
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Reporting by Frank Tang, ftang@opisnet.com; Editing by Jeffrey Barber,
jbarber@opisnet.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 20, 2026 13:53 ET (18:53 GMT)
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