Has Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Risen Too Far After Strong One Year Share Price Surge

Simply Wall St.01-21

If you are wondering whether Howmet Aerospace's share price still makes sense after its recent run, or if it is starting to look stretched, this article walks through what the current market price may...

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These figures naturally raise questions about how much optimism is now priced in and how risk is being viewed.\nRecent coverage...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2720916845.USD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU2764263039.SGD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","HK0000914686.HKD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (HKD)","LU2764263203.CNY":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (CNYHDG) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU1153585028.USD":"BGF GLOBAL LONG-HORIZON EQUITY  \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU2764262908.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","HWM":"Howmet Aerospace Inc.","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Howmet Aerospace(HWM)股价连续一年强劲飙升后是否涨幅过大","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"HWM":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Howmet Aerospace's share price still makes sense after its recent run, or if it is starting to look stretched, this article walks through what the current market price may be implying about the business. The stock last closed at US$220.36, with returns of 0.3% over 7 days, 8.3% over 30 days, 4.1% year to date and 73.8% over the past year. These figures naturally raise questions about how much optimism is now priced in and how risk is being viewed. Recent coverage has focused on Howmet Aerospace as a key name in aerospace and industrial components, with investors paying close attention to contract wins, end market demand and capital allocation decisions. This interest helps explain why the share price has been a frequent topic in market commentary, even outside of earnings updates. In our framework, Howmet Aerospace currently has a valuation score of 0 out of 6. We will look at what different valuation approaches say about that score, and then conclude by discussing a more rounded way to think about value that goes beyond the headline numbers.  Howmet Aerospace scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Howmet Aerospace Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of the cash a business may generate in the future and discounts those cash flows back to today, to arrive at an estimate of what the entire company could be worth right now. For Howmet Aerospace, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $1.37b. Analyst inputs and extrapolated estimates suggest free cash flow of $2.70b by 2029, with a series of projected cash flows between 2026 and 2035 that are discounted back using Simply Wall St's assumptions. On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $162.23 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $220.36, the model implies the stock is 35.8% overvalued according to these cash flow projections and discount rate choices. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Howmet Aerospace may be overvalued by 35.8%. Discover 872 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. HWM Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Howmet Aerospace. Approach 2: Howmet Aerospace Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful quick check because it links what you are paying directly to the earnings the business is generating today. It also captures how the market is weighing growth expectations and risk, since faster growth or lower perceived risk usually line up with a higher P/E being seen as normal. Howmet Aerospace currently trades on a P/E of 61.19x. That sits above the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 42.58x and above the peer group average of 31.61x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 35.68x, which is the P/E level implied by factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk characteristics. This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it adjusts for company specific traits rather than assuming one size fits all. Set against the current P/E of 61.19x, the Fair Ratio of 35.68x indicates the shares are pricing in more optimism than this framework would suggest. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:HWM P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1446 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Howmet Aerospace Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is a better way to think about valuation. On Simply Wall St that is through Narratives, which are simple stories you create about Howmet Aerospace that tie your view of its revenue, earnings and margins into a forecast. You then link that forecast to a fair value and compare that fair value with today’s price to help you judge whether you might buy or sell. Narratives keep updating automatically as new earnings, news and guidance arrive. On the Community page you can see, for example, one investor building a higher growth Narrative that supports a fair value around US$233.70 per share, while another uses more cautious assumptions closer to the lower analyst price target of US$186. This gives you a clear, side by side sense of how different perspectives translate into very different numbers. Do you think there's more to the story for Howmet Aerospace? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:HWM 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Howmet Aerospace might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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