By Nate Wolf
President Donald Trump may have backed off from his previous demands to own Greenland, but he is still pushing for a "Golden Dome" missile-defense system involving the ice-capped island.
Investors seem to think Redwire could be a winner if that project moves forward as planned.
Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte "formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland," the president said in a social media post Wednesday afternoon. "Additional discussions are being held concerning The Golden Dome as it pertains to Greenland."
Redwire stock slumped 4% on Wednesday, but has soared 28% to $13.33 in the two days since. Shares are now up roughly 75% in 2026.
The space-equipment supplier's rapid rise reflects just how much small aerospace and defense stocks depend on the vagaries of geopolitics and government contracts. New signals from the White House or its European counterparts can cause wild swings, as can wins and losses in the fight for individual contracts.
"While an impressive start to the year, we see material upside from current levels as shifts in the geopolitical landscape position the business for a material increase in revenue and generally stronger operating performance in 2026," H.C. Wainwright analyst Scott Buck wrote in a research note Friday.
Redwire has positioned itself as a potential supplier for the Golden Dome, the Trump administration's planned air-defense system. The initiative will have a lifetime value of $542 billion, Buck estimated. It has already received $24.4 billion in funding from the tax-and-spending bill Trump signed into law last year.
Redwire is bidding on the project with core technologies like optical sensors, very low Earth orbit spacecraft, and digital engineering capacity, Buck said.
It is also already a subcontractor on Space Force projects likely to get rolled up into the Golden Dome program, Canaccord Genuity analyst Austin Moeller told Barron's.
Canaccord has a Buy rating and a $11 price target on the stock, though that $11 figure came when shares were trading at $7.48 apiece.
None of those recent developments guarantee that Redwire will get the kind of government business investors are looking for. And it isn't clear that it will deliver as hoped if it does get contracts.
Complexities in a radio-frequency systems program and production delays across various space offerings led to $36.6 million in negative accounting adjustments last year. With one quarter left to report, the company has posted a 2025 loss of more than $30 million before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. That is up from a loss of less than $1 million in 2025.
But Golden Dome isn't the only program investors are betting on. The Pentagon last month requested information from the private sector about the feasibility of producing 300,000 drones "quickly and inexpensively." The request followed reports in November that the U.S. Army wanted to add one million drones in the next two to three years.
Redwire completed a $925 million acquisition of surveillance drone company Edge Autonomy last June, giving the company another revenue stream. And drones are a hot commodity right now.
Ukraine and Russia are each making millions of drones a year, and the prospect of conflict between China and Taiwan could boost global production even higher.
That is a scary prospect for the world, but for Redwire, Moeller said, "it's a very favorable backdrop."
Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 23, 2026 13:12 ET (18:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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