Assessing NVR (NVR) Valuation After Recent Share Price Gains And Signs Of Slowing Revenue And Earnings

Simply Wall St.01-22

AdvertisementRecent share performance and business snapshot NVR (NVR) has drawn attention after a 3.5% move over the past day and a 5.4% gain over the past month, prompting investors to reassess the ...

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The company operates across Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking, with US$10.6b in revenue and US$1.4b in net income, while annual revenue and net income both show single digit percentage declines year over year. Short term returns are mixed, with a 2.8% gain over the past week, a 1.5% gain over the past 3 months, and a negative 6.9% total return over the past year, set against a 53.8% total return over 3 years and 71.9% over 5 years. See our latest analysis for NVR. The recent 1 day share price return of 3.46%, alongside a 5.40% 1 month share price return and a 7.11% year to date share price return at a last close of US$7,796.75, contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 6.98%, even though the 3 year and 5 year total shareholder returns of 53.81% and 71.92% still point to a stronger longer term record. If NVR’s move has you reassessing homebuilders, it could also be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as another set of ideas to review. With revenue and earnings both showing single digit annual declines and the share price already near analyst targets, the real question is whether NVR is quietly undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth? Price-to-Earnings of 15.4x: Is it justified? NVR trades on a P/E of 15.4x, which sits between the broader US market multiple of 19.2x and lower benchmarks such as its industry peers. The P/E ratio tells you how much investors are paying today for each dollar of current earnings, and it is closely watched for established, profitable homebuilders like NVR. With earnings forecast to decline by an average of 5.1% per year over the next 3 years and revenue also expected to decline by 2.9% per year, a richer multiple can imply the market is still willing to pay up for the company’s current earnings quality and high 36.1% return on equity. Against that backdrop, NVR screens as expensive versus a few key reference points. It trades above the estimated fair P/E of 14.4x and above both its peer average multiple of 14.6x and the US Consumer Durables industry average of 11.1x. This suggests the current valuation embeds a premium that other companies in the sector do not command. Explore the SWS fair ratio for NVR Result: Price-to-Earnings of 15.4x (OVERVALUED) However, that premium P/E could be vulnerable if revenue and net income continue to show single digit annual declines, or if analysts trim price targets from current levels. Find out about the key risks to this NVR narrative. Another view: cash flows point the same way Our DCF model also flags NVR as expensive, with the current share price of US$7,796.75 above an estimated future cash flow value of US$7,177.42. That gap suggests limited cushion if earnings or revenue continue to trend lower. This raises the question of whether the recent share price strength is leaving much room for error. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. NVR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NVR for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 876 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own NVR Narrative If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply want to test your own view against the data, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your NVR research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If NVR has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use the screener to line up fresh ideas that match what you want your portfolio to do next.  Spot potential bargains by scanning these 876 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where valuations are checked against cash flow strength instead of just headline price moves. Tap into long term themes by checking out these 23 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence trends across multiple sectors. Boost your search for recurring income by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that already meet a 3% yield threshold.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if NVR might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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