Wall Street is keeping an eye on several themes this tech earnings season that stand out from the past.
Streaming giant Netflix and computer products maker Intel kick off tech earnings this week. While Wall Street will be keeping an eye out for the usual earnings and outlook metrics they report each quarter, several other factors are worth watching this earnings cycle.
A major theme impacting tech hardware companies is the rising cost of memory. Memory demand is outpacing supply as the need for memory that powers artificial intelligence increases. According to research firm IDC, memory makers have shifted production toward memory used in AI data centers instead of expanding conventional DRAM and NAND used in smartphones, PCs, and other consumer electronics.
Investors are expecting companies that need memory chips to see their margins pressured in the months ahead. Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani wrote in a note on Tuesday that he expects financial outlooks to "remain mixed, with more headwinds facing our memory-exposed names."
Personal computer maker HP Inc already spoke about the impact to its margins during its fourth-quarter earnings call in November. Other companies that could feel the memory cost heat are smartphone and PC makers like Apple and Dell. Affected companies could raise hardware prices to offset these headwinds.
Investors are also focused on software companies, and what they will share on the earnings calls in the weeks ahead.
Software stocks have taken a beating as investors fret that AI could replace critical software functions. Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick doesn't expect these concerns to go away anytime soon.
"We do not expect these debates to resolve within the course of next year, with looming overhangs potentially sidelining investors in many cases," Zelnick said in a Jan. 6 research note.
William Blair analyst Arjun Bhatia wrote on Jan. 15 that he thinks software companies can reignite investor sentiment if they double down on their own AI products, improving what they offer and show that they are making more money in that area. Investors will be looking for proof of that this earnings season.
While investments rotate away from software, Melius Research analyst wrote in a note on Tuesday that he recommends chip stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD. These stocks could get a boost if other tech companies continue to raise their AI spending expectations, which is another trend investors will be looking for in the coming weeks.
Megacap tech companies are spending billions of dollars to build out their AI infrastructure. Investors will be looking at companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms to see if they plan on raising those spending budgets yet again.
Meta announced on Jan. 12 that it was establishing a new initiative dubbed Meta Compute as it works to build out more AI computing power. Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, wrote on Tuesday that this is proof that "although the company's capex almost doubled last year to $70B, it looks like META is just getting started."
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