Emerald Resources (ASX:EMR) Valuation In Focus After Okvau December Quarter Production Update

Simply Wall St.01-22

AdvertisementOperational update at Okvau puts production and pricing in focus Emerald Resources (ASX:EMR) has put fresh numbers on the table, reporting December 2025 quarter output of 25,030 ounces ...

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See our latest analysis for Emerald Resources. The operational update appears to have come alongside strong recent momentum, with the share price at A$7.96 after a 64.12% 90 day share price return and a very large 5 year total shareholder return. This suggests investors are reassessing growth prospects and risk. If this kind of move has your attention, it could be a good moment to widen your watchlist and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With the share price already ahead of the current analyst price target and an intrinsic value estimate suggesting a steep discount, the real question is whether Emerald still trades below its fundamentals or if the market is already banking on future growth. Price-to-Earnings of 60x: Is it justified? At A$7.96, Emerald Resources is trading on a P/E of 60x, which means the market is putting a rich price on each dollar of current earnings. The P/E multiple compares the share price to earnings per share and is a quick way to see how much investors are willing to pay for current profitability. For a miner like Emerald, a higher P/E often signals that the market is pricing in strong earnings growth ahead rather than just focusing on the most recent year. In Emerald's case, the current P/E of 60x sits well above the Australian Metals and Mining industry average of 25.9x. It is also higher than the estimated fair P/E of 38.5x that our fair ratio work suggests the market could move towards over time. That gap implies investors are currently accepting a premium valuation relative to both peers and this fair ratio benchmark. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Emerald Resources Result: Price-to-Earnings of 60x (OVERVALUED) However, such a rich P/E and a share price already above the A$7.38 analyst target leave less room for error if Okvau operations or earnings disappoint. Find out about the key risks to this Emerald Resources narrative. DCF says the shares could be far cheaper than they look While a 60x P/E suggests Emerald is expensive, our DCF model points in the opposite direction. At A$7.96, the shares are trading 90.1% below an estimate of future cash flow value of A$80.60, which indicates a large potential valuation gap. This contrast between a rich earnings multiple and a deep DCF discount raises a simple question for you: which lens do you trust more, current earnings or long term cash flows? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. EMR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Emerald Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 881 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Emerald Resources Narrative If you are not fully on board with this view or prefer to run your own numbers, you can build a customised Emerald thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Emerald Resources. Looking for more investment ideas? If Emerald is already on your radar, do not stop there. Spread your research across more opportunities so you are not relying on a single story.  Chase potential value by focusing on companies the market might be overlooking through these 881 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that highlight gaps between price and fundamentals. Position yourself early in technology trends by scanning these 23 AI penny stocks that sit at the intersection of software, data and automation. Strengthen your income shortlist by filtering for these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that meet a yield threshold while still letting you compare fundamentals side by side.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Emerald Resources might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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