Assessing Hamilton Lane (HLNE) Valuation After Its Role In Crescent Credit Solutions VII Deal

Simply Wall St.01-23 10:39

Hamilton Lane (HLNE) is back in focus after funds it manages took a significant role in Crescent Capital Group’s US$3.2b Crescent Credit Solutions VII private credit continuation vehicle, the largest ...

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See our latest analysis for Hamilton Lane. At a share price of US$152.10, Hamilton Lane has had a 30 day share price return of 9.86% and a 90 day share price return of 28.05%, while the 3 year total shareholder return of 110.65% and 5 year total shareholder return of 114.21% suggest momentum has been built over time despite a 1 year total shareholder return of 3.41% decline. Recent headlines around its role in Crescent Credit Solutions VII and its commentary on private markets with Guardian keep attention on how investors are reassessing growth potential and risk in listed alternative asset managers. If this kind of private markets activity has your attention, it could be a useful moment to broaden your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With Hamilton Lane trading around US$152.10 and recent returns looking mixed, the real question for investors is whether current strength still leaves room for upside or if the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementPrice-to-Earnings of 29.3x: Is it justified? Hamilton Lane closed at US$152.10, and on a P/E of 29.3x it is priced well above both its peers and an estimated fair earnings multiple. The P/E ratio compares the share price with earnings per share and is a common way investors look at how much they are paying for each dollar of current earnings. For an alternative asset manager like Hamilton Lane, a higher P/E often signals that the market is attaching a premium to its earnings profile, business model or growth outlook. Several data points suggest that this premium multiple is linked to earnings quality and growth expectations. The company has high quality earnings, net profit margins of 31.1% compared with 28% last year, and earnings growth of 25.5% over the past year, above both its own 5 year average of 16.7% and the Capital Markets industry at 15.4%. Forecasts also point to earnings growth of about 20.5% per year and a high forecast Return on Equity of 31.5% in three years, which can help explain why investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings. Compared with peers, though, the premium is clear. Hamilton Lane’s P/E of 29.3x is higher than the US Capital Markets industry average of 25.8x and roughly double the peer average of 14.4x. It also stands above an estimated fair P/E of 18.5x that our fair ratio work suggests the market could move toward if sentiment or growth expectations change. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Hamilton Lane Result: Price-to-Earnings of 29.3x (OVERVALUED) However, there are clear risks here, including a rich 29.3x P/E and heavy reliance on private markets activity, which could cool or face tougher fundraising conditions. Find out about the key risks to this Hamilton Lane narrative. Another View: Cash Flows Tell a Similar Story Our DCF model points in the same direction as the earnings multiple. At US$152.10, Hamilton Lane trades above an estimated future cash flow value of US$143.91, which also points to an overvalued picture rather than a hidden bargain. For you as an investor, that gap means less room for error if cash flows or sentiment soften from here. The question is whether you are comfortable paying today’s price if the cash flow math already looks full. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. HLNE Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Hamilton Lane for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 878 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Hamilton Lane Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to rely on your own work, you can test the assumptions yourself in a few minutes and Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Hamilton Lane. Looking for more investment ideas? If Hamilton Lane has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your opportunity set and let a few fresh screens spark your next round of research.  Spot potential mispricings by scanning these 878 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may offer more earnings for every dollar you pay. Target income opportunities by filtering for these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that could complement growth focused holdings. Follow the digital finance trend by reviewing these 19 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks that are building businesses around blockchain and related technologies.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Hamilton Lane might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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