Assessing United Airlines (UAL) Valuation After Recent Share Price Pullback And Long Term Gains

Simply Wall St.06:34

AdvertisementUnited Airlines Holdings stock update United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is back on watch for investors after recent share price moves, with the stock showing mixed short term performance but...

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However, its 3 year total...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4500":"航空公司","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UAL":"联合大陆航空","BK4008":"航空公司"},"translate_title":"在近期股价回调和长期上涨后评估联合航空(UAL)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"UAL":1.5},"content_text":"AdvertisementUnited Airlines Holdings stock update United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is back on watch for investors after recent share price moves, with the stock showing mixed short term performance but a positive total return profile over the past 3 years. See our latest analysis for United Airlines Holdings. At a share price of US$107.74, United Airlines Holdings has recently seen a 7 day share price return of a 5.07% decline and a 30 day share price return of a 6.16% decline. However, its 3 year total shareholder return of 121.10% and 5 year total shareholder return of 169.42% point to a longer term story where recent momentum looks to be cooling after earlier gains. If United’s recent swings have you looking across the sector, it could be a good moment to review other aerospace and defense stocks that may fit your risk and return preferences. With United trading at US$107.74, sitting at a reported intrinsic discount of 61.55% and below the average analyst price target, you have to ask: is this a genuine value opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 14% Undervalued With United Airlines Holdings last closing at $107.74 against a widely followed fair value estimate of about $125.26, the main narrative sees upside that the recent pullback does not fully reflect.  Execution of the United Next fleet modernization and capacity expansion strategy, particularly upgauging to larger, more fuel efficient aircraft with more premium seats, will unlock further operational leverage, reduce per seat operating costs, and drive operating margin improvement over the next several years.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue growth, margin lift, and earnings power need to line up for that valuation to make sense? The full narrative lays out a tight set of assumptions, from top line progression to future profit multiples, that underpin this fair value call. At a discount rate of about 10.17%, this fair value framework leans heavily on United converting its fleet and premium cabin investments into steadier margins and higher earnings over time. It also assumes that earnings quality and capital allocation support a higher valuation multiple than today, even as growth forecasts sit below the broader US market and revenue projections track slower than the overall economy. Result: Fair Value of $125.26 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that upside view still depends on United handling higher debt-related risks and avoiding prolonged pressure on premium travel demand, which could cap margins and earnings power. Find out about the key risks to this United Airlines Holdings narrative. Another Take Using Earnings Multiples The fair value work above leans on detailed cash flow and margin assumptions, but the current P/E of about 10.7x tells a slightly different story. It sits above the global airlines average of 9.5x, yet below a fair ratio of 15.6x and a peer average of 30.3x. This combination hints at both valuation risk and potential upside. Which of these anchors do you think the market will pay more attention to over time? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqGS:UAL P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own United Airlines Holdings Narrative If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer your own homework, you can build a fresh thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your United Airlines Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If United has your attention, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to quickly spot clear, data driven ideas that match your style.  Zero in on income potential by checking out these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that might offer more consistent cash returns than you get from waiting on price moves alone. Get ahead of the next big tech shifts by reviewing these 24 AI penny stocks where artificial intelligence is already central to the business model. Hunt for mispriced opportunities by scanning these 870 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that appear cheap relative to their cash flow profiles and fundamentals.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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