Myriad Moves: Bitcoin Bearishness Grows as Gold Gets Closer to Beating Ethereum to $5K

Decrypt01-22 23:12

In brief Predictors are nearly certain that Bitcoin will not make a new all-time high before July as the asset slipped below $90,000. They are more bullish on gold, which is a near-lock in predictors...

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Since that time, the top crypto asset has floundered, leading predictors on Myriad to become even more bearish on its chances of making a new all-time high anytime soon.As of Thursday afternoon, predictors give Bitcoin just a 19% chance of reaching a new all-time high—that is, surpassing its October mark of $126,080—by July. That represents nearly a 10% move in the last week, as the price of BTC has slid below $90,000, recently changing hands around $89,312. President Trump’s recent waffling around his pursuit of Greenland and punitive tariffs against uncooperative EU allies haven’t helped the markets, with investors exiting Bitcoin ETFs to the tune of $709 million on Wednesday.Some crypto bulls remain optimistic, however—like Ripple president Brad Garlinghouse, who still foresees the crypto market reaching all-time highs in 2026. But Bitcoin will need to jump more than 29% to overtake its previous high mark by July to satisfy this market’s believers.What’s Next? Odds of a rate cut at the end of January continue to fall, but the next FOMC meeting could provide a catalyst for a near-term BTC surge. Gold versus ETH: Which hits $5K first?Market Open: October 15Market Close: Open until resolutionVolume: $140KLink: See the latest odds on the \"Gold versus ETH: Which hits $5K first?\" market on MyriadOne of Myriad’s longest-standing markets is nearing resolution as gold continues to surge. The precious metal has now jumped 7.28% on the week and was recently priced at $4,938—just $62 away from resolving the market in the commodity's favor. The surge (and ETH’s subsequent fall) has led to a 16% swing in odds, which now price the likelihood of gold reaching $5,000 first at 94%. Gold will need to rise another 1.25% in order to hit the market, meanwhile, ETH would need to jump 60% from its current price of $2,948.While Ethereum continues to be the focus of the tokenization trend, its price lags, and sentiment points to a move lower rather than higher—befitting of its just 6% chances of hitting $5,000 first. What’s Next? Gold will need to cool down considerably to give ETH a chance at making a new all-time high of $5,000. Zcash next move: Pump to $550 or dump to $250?Market Open: January 8Market Close: Open until resolution Volume: $8.27KLink: See the latest odds on the \"Zcash next move: pump to $550 or dump to $250?\"  market on MyriadZcash (ZEC) was the darling of crypto markets in the final months of 2025, but now finds itself mired in the choppy market doldrums alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. ZEC is now down around 13% in the last 30 days, and is nearly 50% off its November high above $720, recently changing hands at $364.05. As the token idles, predictors on Myriad are asked whether or not its next stop is a pump to $550, or if it will continue to slide to $250.In the last week, opinions have changed, with odds swinging more than 21%—now favoring a dump to $250 at 62% as of Thursday afternoon. At this point last week, predictors gave the pump to $550 about a 60% chance. The token has been dealt an interesting hand in the first month of the year, with the team at Electric Capital Company—which created and contributed to Zcash’s development—leaving following a governance dispute with a nonprofit in the ZEC ecosystem. The price of Zcash fell following the news, but then rebounded once markets were assured that the team would continue to work on Zcash, just under a different company.Analysts told Decrypt on Thursday that the token’s near-term future is unlikely to see “a massive divergence” from the broader crypto market, meaning it could be stuck in neutral so long as Bitcoin and Ethereum stay choppy. Another analyst said that while network activity is well below its November peak, enough residual demand could support the asset in the near-term. The token has rebounded about 2% in the last 24 hours, but it still sits about 51% away from the $550 mark outlined by the market. On the other hand, a 31% drop would satisfy the market and benefit the majority of predictors who forecast a drop to $250.What’s Next? This market will remain open until resolution.Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.Your EmailGet it!Get it!","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2605445815","isCrawlerRequest":true}