Southern Copper (SCCO) Valuation Check After Record Q3 2025 Results And Tia Maria Authorization

Simply Wall St.01-23 06:34

Southern Copper (SCCO) is back on investor radar after record Q3 2025 results and fresh authorization to start exploitation activities at its Tia Maria project, alongside ongoing dividends and project...

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See our latest analysis for Southern Copper. The latest Q3 2025 records and progress at Tia Maria come after a strong run in the shares, with the current price at $176.41 and a 30 day share price return of 19.18%, building on a 93.81% 1 year total shareholder return and a 177.22% 3 year total shareholder return. If Southern Copper’s recent move has caught your attention, it can be useful to see what else is moving in related areas such as aerospace and defense stocks. With Southern Copper trading above some analyst targets after a strong multi year run and record Q3 2025 results, investors now face a simple question: is there still value on the table here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementPrice-to-Earnings of 39.5x: Is it justified? Southern Copper’s last close at $176.41 sits on a P/E of 39.5x, which points to a rich price tag compared with several benchmarks. The P/E ratio compares the current share price to earnings per share, so a higher multiple usually reflects higher expectations for future profits. For a miner like Southern Copper, a 39.5x P/E suggests the market is willing to pay a premium for its earnings stream. Here, that premium comes despite our DCF model indicating the shares are trading above its future cash flow value estimate of $97.49. It also comes despite earnings being forecast to grow 7.1% per year, which is slower than the 16.1% expected for the US market and below the 20% threshold often used to define high growth. The P/E of 39.5x is also materially higher than the estimated fair P/E of 25.7x, a level the market could gravitate toward if sentiment cools. In addition, it stands above both the US Metals and Mining industry average of 28x and the peer average of 29.7x. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Southern Copper Result: Price-to-Earnings of 39.5x (OVERVALUED) However, there are clear risks here, including project execution challenges at Tia Maria and the possibility that softer commodity demand could pressure earnings at a 39.5x P/E. Find out about the key risks to this Southern Copper narrative. Another View: Cash Flows Paint a Harsher Picture Price multiples are only one lens. Our DCF model takes a different approach by estimating the present value of Southern Copper’s future cash flows, which comes out at US$97.49 per share versus the current US$176.41. On that basis, the shares currently appear overvalued relative to this model-based estimate, so an investor would need to consider how comfortable they are paying such a premium given the growth that is currently forecast at 7.1% a year. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. SCCO Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Southern Copper for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 882 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Southern Copper Narrative If you prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, or you simply see the story differently, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Southern Copper research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you are serious about building a stronger portfolio, do not stop at one company, use the Simply Wall St Screener to find other focused opportunities.  Target potential mispricing by checking out these 882 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that align with your preferred risk and return profile. Tap into growth themes by scanning these 24 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence trends you want exposure to. Add income angles to your watchlist by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may fit a yield focused approach.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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