The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2147 ET - TD Securities expects deeper backwardations in LME copper, as incentives to stockpile clash with limited supplies of physical metal, says TD Securities analyst Daniel Ghali. "Amid unprecedented metal scarcity, venues must price each other out from attracting metal, resulting in a cycle favoring higher flat prices, curve dislocations, and rising physical premiums," Ghali says. He says yearslong underinvestment in copper production has left the market vulnerable to a supply crunch. "Global unencumbered copper inventories are now draining into oblivion," says Ghali. Of the roughly 53 days of demand remaining in aboveground inventories, only 11.5 days worth were unrestricted at December-end, he says.(rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2010 ET - Oil rises in early Asian trade on a possible technical recovery after WTI and Brent settled down 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively, on Thursday. However, oil-price gains may be curbed by easing geopolitical tensions, analysts say. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced plans for trilateral meetings with the U.S. and Russia, ANZ Research analysts say. "Any breakthrough to end Russia's war in Ukraine could see an end to U.S. sanctions on Russia that have curtailed oil flows," the analysts add. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.5% higher at $59.64/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.4% higher at $64.33/bbl. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1841 ET - Beach Energy can achieve its FY 2026 production target but it's going to be tight, reckons Canaccord Genuity. Beach expects annual output of 19.7 million-22.0 million BOE. Following Beach's 2Q report, Canaccord cuts its forecast for FY 2026 to 19.9 million BOE while also lowering its outlook in FY 2027 to 21.9 million BOE. Analyst James Bullen says this reflects lower customer nominations and planned downtime at assets in the Otway Basin of southeastern Australia. It also accounts for a slightly slower rampup of the Waitsia Stage 2 project in Western Australia, and increased conservatism about the recovery and production of flood-impacted wells in the Cooper Basin of central Australia. Canaccord has a buy call on Beach. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1830 ET - Genesis Energy's upgrade to its FY 2026 earnings guidance may not be its last, says Forsyth Barr. Genesis now expects annual Ebitdaf of NZ$490 million-NZ$520 million. That's up some NZ$35 million on its prior projection. "With operating conditions remaining favorable (and recent rain adding to catchments), we see earnings risks to the upside in the short term," analyst Andrew Harvey-Green says. "January 2026 is tracking toward a record, with month-to-date Otahuhu prices averaging NZ$5/MWh." Forsyth Barr lifts its forecast for FY 2026 Ebitdaf to NZ$526 million, putting it above Genesis's revised range. It retains a neutral call on Genesis's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1818 ET - Macquarie is surprised South32 didn't update investors about the cost of its Hermosa zinc-lead-silver development in the U.S. when reporting its 1H operational performance. South32 has estimated the cost of building a mine called Taylor at Hermosa to be $2.16 billion. Macquarie assumes the budget will overrun to $2.3 billion considering inflationary pressures in the mining industry. "We had thought prior to the new CEO and Chair assuming responsibility, South32 might provide a Hermosa update given recent industry capex revisions," Macquarie says. It retains an outperform call on South32, and raises its price target by 10% to A$4.60/share. South32 is up 1.1% at A$4.45 early on Friday. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
Santos's forecast output of between 101 million and 111 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2026 was broadly consistent with Macquarie's expectations. The bank said the increase on 87.7 million BOE achieved in 2025 is "a key positive given this is a step-up year." Macquarie retains an outperform call on Santos, noting risks to the investment case are reducing rapidly as its new projects come online. Santos is loading the first cargo of liquefied natural gas from the Barossa project in Australia and its Pikka Phase 1 development in Alaska is on track to produce oil for the first time by the end of March. Macquarie says an asset portfolio producing 100 million-120 million BOE puts Santos on course for a "double-digit free cash flow yield." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1509 ET - Oil futures fall on easing geopolitical tensions, including President Trump's comments on Iran and the Russia-Ukraine peace effort. "In one fell swoop, the president gave the impression an attack on Iran is less likely, the Russian war in Ukraine is close to a cease-fire, and the U.S. is not going to attack Greenland or impose new tariffs on European countries," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. Prices fell further after the EIA reported a 3.6 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks, along with increases in gasoline and diesel inventories. "Big storage numbers in products will ultimately squeeze refiner margins and force the refiner to cut back on the run rate, with unused crude oil barrels getting stuffed into storage," Yawger adds. WTI settles down 2.1% at $59.36 a barrel. Brent falls 1.8% to $64.06.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1458 ET - U.S. natural gas futures pull back from a three-year intraday peak but still settle higher, posting their sharpest three-day gain on record as a severe cold blast heads across much of the U.S. into the weekend and beyond. The below-average 120 Bcf storage draw for last week was largely shrugged off with the market focused on the weather ahead."The next three storage reports are expected to reflect very large withdrawals, with the week ending January 30 carrying the potential for a record draw well in excess of 300 Bcf," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note."With the coldest stretch of weather since at least 2018 now embedded in the outlook, inventories could fall below 1.7 Tcf, which would be a deficit to both year-ago levels and the five-year average." Nymex gas for February delivery settles up 3.5% at $5.045/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1441 ET - Private-equity firms that potentially seek to participate in the rebuilding of Venezuela's oil industry are likely to start in services and infrastructure sectors as opposed to exploration and production, Benny Wong, senior research analyst at PitchBook Data, says in a report. "PE investors will initially be largely hesitant to be heavily involved and will look toward industry players for cues of confidence," Wong says. If conditions in the country improve, "we could see more PE involvement in services, as well as larger stakes in midstream and power rehabilitation," he says. Just as private-equity firms expect large U.S. energy companies to lead the way in Venezuela, those companies "would very much welcome PE partnership to share the financial cost and risks," Wong adds. (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)
1239 ET - Crude futures add to losses after the EIA reports increases in crude oil and product inventories for last week. Crude stocks rose by 3.6 million barrels versus average expectations in a WSJ survey of a 500,000 barrel draw. Gasoline inventories were up by 6 million barrels in a 10th straight weekly build, and distillate stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels. WTI is down 2.1% at $59.32 a barrel. Nymex diesel falls 2.1% to $2.3794 a gallon and gasoline is down 2.6% at $1.8091 a gallon. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1137 ET - Oil prices extend losses after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said representatives from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine are set to meet in the United Arab Emirates for two days this week. Brent crude is down 1.4% to $64.30 a barrel, while WTI falls 1.4% to $59.25 a barrel. Zelensky signaled progress in peace talks at a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, saying "the documents aimed at ending this war are nearly ready." A ceasefire or peace deal would likely result in the removal of U.S. sanctions on Russia and end strikes against energy infrastructure, weighing down prices. President Trump also softened threats against Iran and said he would hold off from imposing tariffs on several European countries after reaching the framework of a deal over Greenland, supporting broader markets. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1125 ET - Elon Musk says that putting artificial-intelligence data centers in space will be the lowest-cost option within three years at the latest, if not two, during a talk at Davos. He says the first breakthrough toward this goal will be full rocket reusability, which SpaceX is working toward this year. "The cost of access to space will drop by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability," Musk says. Once that is achieved, he says, solar panels deployed in space will be five times as effective as those on Earth. "It's a no-brainer for building solar-powered AI data centers in space," he says. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 22, 2026 21:47 ET (02:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments