Gold Has Shone. How Trump, Fed Can Keep It Surging in a Turbulent Market. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones01-23 19:37

After a turbulent week in markets, gold is still shining. While the immediate threat of an intra-NATO trade war is off the table, there are plenty of reasons for investors to stick with the precious metal as the focus shifts to the Federal Reserve.

Gold is hovering around the $5,000-an-ounce mark, just months after topping the $4,000 threshold for the first time. The price pulled back slightly after tensions between the U.S. and Europe eased following President Donald Trump's backtrack on Greenland -- but that didn't last long. The metal resumed its rally as the message from the World Economic Forum in Davos became: brace for a less stable world order.

But it's not just the future of an Arctic island that has made gold more attractive. Somewhat lost in the noise over Greenland were messages that a new Fed chair announcement could come as soon as next week, and that the White House projects the U.S. economy will grow between 4% and 5% in inflation-adjusted terms, twice as fast as consensus forecasts. That suggests there will be political pressure on the new central bank leader to let the economy run hot by lowering interest rates.

Gold benefits from lower rates, as its lack of a yield is less of a disadvantage. It also acts as a hedge against the possibility of a spike in inflation. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady next week, that will likely be overshadowed by expectations of more cuts under the leadership of a new chair.

If the Fed's policy direction is in question, there is little doubt what other countries' central banks are doing -- buying up gold as fast as they can. The National Bank of Poland this month approved a plan to add another 150 metric tons to its gold holdings. Gold recently surpassed Treasuries as a share of global reserves, making it the second--largest holding behind the dollar, according to analysts at LPL Financial.

Add it all together and gold looks ever-more alluring. The Fed and the start of Big Tech earnings, with updates from Meta and Microsoft, will take the spotlight next week, but expect the yellow metal to keep dazzling investors.

-- Adam Clark

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Intel Beats Expectations But Supply Constraints Continue

Intel, the chip maker trying to stage a turnaround, continues to see strong processor demand but it faces constraints and forecasts weaker-than-expected first-quarter revenue even after beating expectations for the fourth quarter despite industrywide supply shortages.

   -- CFO David Zinsner told Barron's it worked through much of its prior 
      inventory and was still facing "supply constraints," but he expects chip 
      supply will improve each quarter for the rest of the year. A rise in 
      memory prices could be "a bit of a challenge" in the second half. 
 
   -- Fourth-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion fell 4% from the prior year, and 
      adjusted earnings were 15 cents a share. First-quarter revenue is 
      forecast at $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, with break-even EPS on an 
      adjusted basis or an unadjusted 21 cent a share loss. 
 
   -- CEO Lip-Bu Tan said the company was working aggressively to grow its 
      supply to meet demand and that its priorities are to sharpen execution, 
      reinvigorate engineering excellence, and fully capitalize on the vast 
      opportunity artificial intelligence presents. 
 
   -- Intel's data center and AI revenue rose 9% in the fourth quarter, to $4.7 
      billion, and its client computing group revenue fell 7% to $8.2 billion. 
      Its foundry revenue rose 4% to $4.5 billion. The adjusted gross margin 
      for the quarter narrowed slightly to 37.9%. 

What's Next: Despite its struggles, investors have plowed cash into Intel, including the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank and the U.S. government, and it has signed deals to develop chips with Nvidia. Its shares have nearly doubled in price since last summer and reached another 52-week high on Thursday.

-- Tae Kim and Liz Moyer

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Trump Vows Big Retaliation as 'Sell America' List Grows

One of the world's biggest public funds has trimmed its U.S. asset exposure as the "sell America" trade spreads. Jo Taylor at the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan with $200 billion in assets under management told Bloomberg TV it scaled back its investment in U.S. assets early last year.

   -- Taylor said they felt exposed to the dollar and Treasuries, so it cut 
      them. The U.S. is still around 30% of its overall portfolio "and remains 
      an important territory for us in terms of further capital." But that 
      might not mean more Treasury purchases. Others have expressed a similar 
      view. 
 
   -- Denmark's pension fund for teachers is selling $100 million in Treasuries, 
      while the Greenland-based SISA Pension fund has said it may follow suit. 
      But the world's biggest sovereign-wealth fund, the $2.1 trillion Norges 
      Bank Investment Management, is staying put, reflecting the size of the 
      U.S. market. 
 
   -- President Donald Trump has some harsh words for those who are selling 
      America, saying it would invite "a big retaliation" when asked at Davos 
      if he was concerned that European countries might dump U.S. Treasuries. 
      "We have all the cards," he said. 
 
   -- The U.S. debt could rise past $50 trillion over the coming decade, the 
      Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said, much of it owned by 
      foreign investors. Some are starting to balk at ballooning deficits and 
      an American president blustering about Canada statehood and threats over 
      Central and South America. 

What's Next: A market sensitive to political risk explains why global investors are reassessing their exposure to U.S. assets, says John Murillo, chief business officer at B2Broker. Capital rotating out of U.S. equities and Treasuries results in higher bond yields, tighter financial conditions, and reduced liquidity.

-- Martin Baccardax

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Airlines Brace for Chaos as Winter Storm Barrels Across U.S.

Airlines are bracing for several days of major travel disruptions as a powerful winter storm barrels its way across much of the U.S., promising heavy snowfall and potential power outages. The storm, which is also plunging much of the U.S. into subzero temperatures, could hit retailers, too.

   -- More than 120 million Americans are under a winter storm watch for this 
      weekend. Major carriers including Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, 
      Southwest, and American Airlines are waiving ticket change fees and some 
      fare differences for travelers affected by cancellations and delays. 
 
   -- Bill Kirk, CEO of Weathertrends360, said this will be the coldest, 
      snowiest, and wettest weekend in over 41 years. The storm, coming on the 
      last weekend of retailers' fourth quarter, will disrupt traffic to malls 
      and apparel stores, but help grocery stores, gas stations, and home 
      centers. 
 
   -- The storm could also test the resilience of natural-gas infrastructure -- 
      risking a supply shock that would send prices even higher. Natural-gas 
      futures jumped 63% to $5.04 per million British Thermal Units from 
      Tuesday to Thursday, the largest three-day increase on record. 
 
   -- The deep freeze could be the biggest test for the electric grid since 
      Winter Storm Uri in 2021, which killed hundreds of Americans and left 
      millions without power. Power-hungry AI data centers are making the power 
      crunch more acute and elevating the risk of outages. 

What's Next: Data centers have helped push peak demand up 2.5% in the past year, equivalent to the power generated by about 20 nuclear reactors, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which monitors grid reliability. It sees an elevated risk of outages this winter in Texas and elsewhere.

-- Janet H. Cho and Avi Salzman

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TikTok Completes Deal to Keep Operating in U.S.

A deal between the U.S. and China to sell TikTok's American business to a consortium of investors has finally been approved. TikTok announced on Thursday night that a joint venture company has been established.

   -- This was expected. CEO Shou Zi Chew told employees in a memo in December 
      about the plans to create the joint venture. President Donald Trump 
      signed an executive order in September that paved a way to make the deal 
      possible. 
 
   -- The joint venture has three managing investors -- Oracle, private-equity 
      firm Silver Lake, and Emirati state-owned AI investor MGX. Each of those 
      firms will hold 15% in the new entity. 
 
   -- Other investors include the Dell Family Office, which is the investment 
      firm of Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell; Vastmere Strategic 
      Investments, an affiliate of Susquehanna International Group; and Alpha 
      Wave Partners. China's ByteDance will retain a 19.9% stake of the joint 
      venture. 
 
   -- This deal puts an end to what had been a multiyear saga for TikTok and 
      its American users, after former President Joe Biden signed the TikTok 
      ban, otherwise known as the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary 
      Controlled Applications Act, into law in 2024. 

What's Next: The U.S. government is set to receive a multibillion-dollar package from investors for organizing the deal. TikTok's deputy CEO Adam Presser will be in charge of the U.S. business.

-- Angela Palumbo and Alex Kozul-Wright

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Elon Musk's SpaceX Makes Another Move Toward IPO

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January 23, 2026 06:37 ET (11:37 GMT)

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