Is Origin Bancorp (OBK) Pricing Its Recent Share Gains Fairly?

Simply Wall St.01-21

If you are wondering whether Origin Bancorp's current share price reflects solid value or hidden risk, it helps to start by lining up the recent performance with what you are actually paying for the ...

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This gives useful context before comparing the price to fundamentals.\nRecent coverage has focused on Origin Bancorp's...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4211":"区域性银行","OBK":"Origin Bancorp"},"translate_title":"Origin Bancorp(OBK)对其近期股价上涨的定价是否公平？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"OBK":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Origin Bancorp's current share price reflects solid value or hidden risk, it helps to start by lining up the recent performance with what you are actually paying for the business. The stock last closed at US$39.70, with returns of 1.1% over 7 days, 2.1% over 30 days, 5.5% year to date, 13.1% over 1 year, 8.7% over 3 years, and 47.1% over 5 years. This gives useful context before comparing the price to fundamentals. Recent coverage has focused on Origin Bancorp's position in the US regional banking sector, including its lending footprint and balance sheet profile. This helps frame how investors are thinking about risk and growth potential. Commentary around the company has also touched on how it compares with peers on metrics such as profitability, loan mix, and capital strength, all of which can influence how the market prices the shares. Simply Wall St assigns Origin Bancorp a valuation score of 2 out of 6, based on how many checks suggest the stock is undervalued. Next, we will look at what different valuation approaches say about that score and hint at an even better way to think about value later in the article.  Origin Bancorp scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Origin Bancorp Excess Returns Analysis The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company is expected to earn above its cost of equity, and then ties that back to what shareholders might reasonably pay for those future excess profits. For Origin Bancorp, the inputs are centered on its equity base and projected profitability. Book value is $39.23 per share, with a stable book value estimate of $44.71 per share, based on weighted future book value estimates from 5 analysts. Stable EPS is $3.98 per share, sourced from weighted future return on equity estimates from the same analyst group. Against a cost of equity of $3.11 per share, this points to an excess return of $0.87 per share and an average return on equity of 8.91%. Feeding these into the Excess Returns framework produces an estimated intrinsic value of about $68.35 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $39.70, the model implies the stock is 41.9% undervalued using this method. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Origin Bancorp is undervalued by 41.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 874 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows. OBK Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Origin Bancorp. Approach 2: Origin Bancorp Price vs Earnings For a profitable bank like Origin Bancorp, the P/E ratio is a useful way to check what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. In general, higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk can support a higher “normal” P/E, while slower expected growth or higher risk usually points to a lower one. Origin Bancorp currently trades on a P/E of 20.51x. That sits above both the Banks industry average P/E of 11.77x and the peer average of 11.12x, which suggests the market is putting a richer price on its earnings compared with many regional banking peers. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Origin Bancorp is 16.36x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E might look like after accounting for factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, risk profile, industry and market cap, rather than just lining it up against a broad industry or a small peer set. On this basis, Origin Bancorp’s current P/E of 20.51x sits above the Fair Ratio, which points to the shares looking overvalued using this earnings multiple approach. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:OBK P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1444 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Origin Bancorp Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Origin Bancorp’s story with the numbers behind it. A Narrative is your version of the Origin Bancorp story, where you set out what you expect for future revenue, earnings and margins, then link those assumptions to a fair value that you can compare with today’s share price. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an easy tool used by millions of investors to turn a company story into a forward looking forecast and a fair value. They update automatically when fresh information such as earnings releases or news is added. This helps you evaluate your options by comparing your Fair Value to the current market Price. Different investors can look at Origin Bancorp very differently. For example, one Narrative might point to a Fair Value well above US$39.70, while another might sit well below that level. Do you think there's more to the story for Origin Bancorp? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:OBK 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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