MW It's make-your-mind-up time for Rio Tinto as deadline looms for decision on Glencore takeover
By Jules Rimmer
Rio Tinto has until Feb. 5 to inform the U.K. Takeover Panel if it intends to make an offer for Glencore
Rio Tinto and Glencore would have a combined enterprise value of around $260 billion, far in excess of the largest mining company at present, BHP at $160 billion.
Rio Tinto (UK:RIO) has until Feb. 5 to inform the U.K. Takeover Panel whether it intends to proceed with its proposed acquisition of Glencore (UK:GLEN). If it does move forward with the transaction, the new entity could have a combined enterprise value of around $260 billion - making it, by some distance, the world's biggest mining company.
Analysts generally view the proposed acquisition positively, with Barclays' metals and mining team, led by Ian Rossouw, of the opinion that Glencore may be able to command a 20% to 25% premium to its "undisturbed" level (before the deal was rumored) and hold out for GBP5.30 (equivalent to $7.13) - the price at which it floated back in May 2011. Glencore has regained that level only once, very briefly, on Jan. 1, 2023.
Rossouw and his team rate the stock as overweight.
Investec's Patrick Mann, who has a buy recommendation with a GBP4.60 target price, views a Jan. 8 announcement from Rio Tinto and Glencore that confirmed talks were underway as part of a wider M&A trend within the mining sector, driven by big miners looking to increase copper exposure.
Glencore tried to buy Teck Resources $(TECK)$ in 2023, BHP $(BHP)$ tried to buy Anglo American (UK:AAL) 2024 and 2025, and then Teck and Anglo American agreed to a "merger of equals." BHP, Mann added in a desk note to clients published Wednesday, is left "noticeably out in the cold" and, at an enterprise value of $180 billion, is no longer the biggest sectoral play.
In this era of resource nationalism and jostling for geoeconomic supremacy, copper assets are highly prized. At present, Glencore and Rio Tinto mine about 850,000 metric tons of copper annually, and both are targeting (organic) growth to about 1 million metric tons per year by the end of the decade. Glencore has neatly packaged all its coal assets into a separate subsidiary that is ready to be spun off, a step that could be triggered by a deal with Rio Tinto.
Mann interprets the Jan. 8 regulatory filing as framing the move as an acquisition, hence the premium Glencore shareholders may request. With a market capitalization of GBP106 billion (equivalent to $79 billion), Rio Tinto, whose head offices are in Melbourne and London, is pretty much double the size of Glencore, headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.
Bloomberg quoted insider sources at Chinalco, the state-owned Chinese metals giant that holds 14.55% of Rio Tinto, as being in favor of the transaction. Without its backing, no deal would be possible, they said. Any merger would also require antitrust approvals from the likes of Australia, Canada, Chile, China, the European Union, the U.S. and possibly others.
Rio Tinto shares were buoyed by the company's 2025 production figures published Wednesday morning, with copper production up 11% year over year. A strong stock price will be helpful to CEO Simon Trott if shares are to be part of the payment for Glencore.
Speculation about the transaction has fueled a major rally in Glencore's stock, which is up 46% in the last three months. Rio Tinto has gained around 22% in that time and is up 40% over the last 12 months. Rio Tinto's New York-listed American depositary receipts $(RIO)$ were 3.7% higher Wednesday morning, while Glencore shares were trading 3.59% higher on the London stock exchange.
-Jules Rimmer
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January 21, 2026 10:05 ET (15:05 GMT)
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