BigBear.ai (BBAI) Valuation Check After CargoSeer Acquisition And AI Trade Security Push

Simply Wall St.01-23

AdvertisementCargoSeer acquisition puts customs focused AI in the spotlight BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) recently agreed to acquire CargoSeer’s AI software technologies for cargo scanning and trade risk...

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See our latest analysis for BigBear.ai Holdings. The CargoSeer deal lands after a busy stretch for BigBear.ai, including the Kraft Group partnership, balance sheet moves around convertible notes, and governance proposals on share authorization. The stock shows a 40.52% 1 year total shareholder return but a weaker 90 day share price return of 15.89%, suggesting longer term momentum contrasts with recent pressure. If this kind of AI focused story has your attention, it could be a good moment to scan high growth tech and AI stocks and see what other opportunities are emerging across the sector. With BBAI trading at US$5.93 against an average analyst target of about US$6.67 and a 3 year total return above 7x, the key question is whether this AI story is still mispriced or if expectations are already fully reflected. Price-to-Sales of 18x: Is it justified? With BigBear.ai trading at US$5.93 and the shares carrying a P/S of 18x, the stock sits well above peers and implied fair levels based on sales. The P/S ratio compares the company’s market value to its revenue, so a higher multiple usually suggests investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of sales. For an unprofitable business like BigBear.ai, this metric often becomes a key shorthand for how much future growth and margin improvement the market is already baking in. Here, the gap is wide. BigBear.ai’s 18x P/S is far above the estimated fair P/S of 2.4x, a level our models suggest the market could eventually lean toward if expectations reset. It is also well above both the US IT industry average of 2.3x and a peer group average of 0.6x, indicating the current valuation embeds much stronger assumptions than what the sector and peers trade on today. Explore the SWS fair ratio for BigBear.ai Holdings Result: Price-to-Sales of 18x (OVERVALUED) However, the narrative could be challenged if the high expectations embedded in that 18x P/S collide with ongoing losses or weaker interest in AI exposed names. Find out about the key risks to this BigBear.ai Holdings narrative.  Build Your Own BigBear.ai Holdings Narrative If you see the numbers differently, or just prefer to weigh the data yourself, you can shape a custom view in a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your BigBear.ai Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If BigBear.ai has caught your eye, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas that could help refine how you allocate capital.  Start with potential value by checking out these 878 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, which compares current prices with underlying cash flows. Explore future-focused themes by scanning these 23 quantum computing stocks, where companies are working on next generation computing potential. Balance growth and resilience by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, which includes stocks offering income yields above 3% alongside equity exposure.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if BigBear.ai Holdings might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2605534426","isCrawlerRequest":true}