年内已经上涨37%，明早的英特尔财报看什么？

华尔街见闻01-22 22:27

今年以来，英特尔股价累计涨幅已达37%，1月21日收盘价报54.25美元，创2022年1月以来新高。当地时间1月22日美股盘后，英特尔将发布最新季度财报。在财报发布前夕，市场的关注点已超越短期营收表现，更多聚焦于三大核心动能：AI Agent带动的CPU需求增长、18A先进制程的推进，以及晶圆代工业务的客户突破。这些因素，正成为决定其股价能否延续强势的关键。当前英特尔的市场逻辑，已不再局限于传统...

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What do you see in Intel's earnings report tomorrow morning?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6e4a9225879f4a603ea9a80d95add5","symbols_score_info":{"04335":1.97,"INTC":1.97},"content_text":"今年以来，英特尔股价累计涨幅已达37%，1月21日收盘价报54.25美元，创2022年1月以来新高。当地时间1月22日美股盘后，英特尔将发布最新季度财报。在财报发布前夕，市场的关注点已超越短期营收表现，更多聚焦于三大核心动能：AI Agent带动的CPU需求增长、18A先进制程的推进，以及晶圆代工业务的客户突破。这些因素，正成为决定其股价能否延续强势的关键。当前英特尔的市场逻辑，已不再局限于传统PC周期。一方面，AI Agent场景催生出新的“域外CPU”需求，推动服务器业务成为增长引擎；另一方面，18A制程与代工业务的实质进展，将决定英特尔能否在先进制造领域重新拉近与台积电的距离。此次财报中透露的产能布局与订单能见度，将成为验证这一成长叙事的重要依据。看点一：服务器CPU的“Agent红利”落地如何？市场普遍将AI Agent视为英特尔服务器业务的关键增长动力。KeyBanc报告指出，英特尔2026年的服务器CPU产能已近售罄；汇丰报告则预测，由Agentic AI拉动的服务器CPU需求增速可能高达30%-40%，显著超越市场原预期的4%-6%。本季财报将重点关注两大指标：DCAI（数据中心与AI）业务营收：摩根士丹利预计该业务Q4环比增长11.5%，若实际数据超出预期，将直接验证Agent相关需求已开始兑现；服务器CPU平均售价（ASP）：西部证券此前指出，英特尔已对相关产品提价10%-15%，若财报中ASP涨幅显著（如超10%），将有力提升整体毛利率水平。摩根士丹利警示，若英特尔因产能限制无法满足全部需求，可能导致部分市场份额被AMD抢占，从而使短期业绩增长伴随长期结构性隐忧。看点二：18A工艺与Panther Lake的进展英特尔18A工艺是其重返制程领先地位的核心战役，而最新公布的Panther Lake处理器将成为其首个采用该工艺的产品。本次财报中，市场将聚焦以下两个关键信号：18A的良率与量产节奏：德意志银行分析指出，18A良率爬升的速度将直接关系到英特尔毛利率的修复进程与成本竞争力；Panther Lake的市场反馈：若财报中透露PC厂商对该处理器的早期订单或合作意向超预期，将是对18A工艺实际商业化能力的有力证明。值得关注的是，近期相关研究显示，将千亿参数大模型存储于CPU内存的方案已能实现低延迟推理，这进一步凸显了英特尔在“CPU-内存”协同架构上的潜在优势。若财报中透露与AI厂商在相关技术方向上的合作进展，或将成为重要的股价催化因素。看点三：代工业务的“客户突破”有进展吗？英特尔代工业务（IFS）被视为其估值重塑的关键增长曲线，但目前市场对其能否成功拓展外部客户仍持谨慎态度。汇丰在研报中指出，英特尔与苹果、英伟达等头部企业的潜在合作仍“缺乏能见度”；摩根士丹利也警示，如果产能瓶颈持续，可能导致外部客户对其代工能力与供给稳定性信心不足。财报与电话会中，若管理层能提供以下任一进展，将显著提振市场预期：获取明确的外部大客户：例如苹果M系列芯片确认采用英特尔18A或后续的14A工艺；先进封装获得实际订单：如EMIB等技术获得来自AI芯片客户的实际设计与量产订单。这一部分的突破，将是验证英特尔能否从“IDM 2.0”战略转向真正市场化代工企业的关键试金石。当前英特尔的股价已包含了市场对其未来数年转型成功的较高预期。本轮财报中，若服务器CPU的“Agent红利”切实落地、且18A工艺量产顺利推进，则股价仍有进一步上行空间；反之，若代工业务迟迟未见客户突破、产能瓶颈反复成为焦点，则短期业绩的增长可能无法完全化解市场对其中长期竞争力的担忧，上行势头或将面临压力。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2605636497","isCrawlerRequest":true}