A Look At Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Valuation As Interest Builds Ahead Of Needham Growth Conference Presentation

Simply Wall St.01-22

AdvertisementConference spotlight and recent stock backdrop Pagaya Technologies (PGY) is in focus as investors look ahead to its presentation at the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference on January 14...

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The stock last closed at US$21.56, with mixed recent returns including a 3.3% move over the past day, a 9.1% decline over the past week, and weaker performance over the past month and past 3 months. See our latest analysis for Pagaya Technologies. Against that conference backdrop, Pagaya Technologies' recent 1-day share price return of 3.3% comes after weaker short term share price performance, while its 1-year total shareholder return of 136.4% signals that longer term momentum has been much stronger than the latest pullback suggests. If this kind of AI driven fintech story has your attention, it may be worth broadening your watchlist to include high growth tech and AI stocks as potential next ideas to research. With Pagaya posting a 136.4% 1-year total return, annual revenue growth of 14.4%, and an annual net loss of US$193.6m, investors now face the key question: is the current price a bargain or already reflecting future growth? Price-to-Sales of 1.4x: Is it justified? At a last close of US$21.56, Pagaya Technologies trades on a P/S of 1.4x, which screens as good value relative to both peers and the wider US Software industry. The P/S ratio compares the company’s market value to its revenue, so it is often used for businesses that are still loss making but generating meaningful sales. For Pagaya, this lens matters because the company is currently unprofitable, yet it reports revenue of US$1,245.9m and an annual net loss of US$193.6m. According to the data, Pagaya is described as trading at good value compared to peers and industry. Its 1.4x P/S sits well below the US Software industry average of 4.5x and the peer average of 3.4x. It is also below an estimated fair P/S ratio of 2.9x, which suggests a level the market could potentially move towards if sentiment and fundamentals stay aligned with that fair ratio framework. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Pagaya Technologies Result: Price-to-Sales of 1.4x (UNDERVALUED) However, you also need to weigh the annual net loss of US$193.6m and the recent 3-month share price decline of 26.9% as potential pressure points. Find out about the key risks to this Pagaya Technologies narrative. Another view: DCF points to a very different story While the 1.4x P/S ratio hints at value, our DCF model presents a much stronger picture. It estimates Pagaya Technologies' future cash flow value at US$313.31 per share versus the current US$21.56, which implies the stock is described as trading 93.1% below that estimate. If both signals are pointing to value, the question becomes what might close that gap, and on what timeline? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. PGY Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Pagaya Technologies for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 881 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Pagaya Technologies Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to run your own checks, you can build a fresh Pagaya view in minutes with Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Pagaya Technologies. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop at just one company, you could miss other opportunities, so keep building your watchlist with fresh, data driven ideas that match your style.  Spot potential value entries by scanning these 881 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that currently trade below what their cash flows suggest. Ride the AI trend with focus by filtering for these 23 AI penny stocks that align with your risk tolerance and time horizon. Add a higher income angle to your research by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that already offer yields above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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