Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Tuesday reiterated its hold rating on the shares of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO, CNQ) with a C$50.00 price target ahead of fourth-quarter results from the country's largest oil producer.
"With our model update, we've increased our Q4'25 CFPS estimate to C$1.68 from C$1.59, putting us slightly above consensus C$1.62 Primary drivers in our update besides MTM factors included an increase to our production estimate (to 1,644mboepd vs. prior 1,627; Street in-line at 1,644), owing mostly to true-ups on NAM Light Oil & NGLs and OSM (TPHe 605mbopd vs. prior 594 and Street 602; TPHe 272mbopd In Situ vs. prior 274 and Street 275) and a reduction to our opex estimate. Elsewhere on ops, our C$1.49B capex is largely unchanged and ~in-line with Street C$1.46B. Big picture, given the fulsome update at the Investor Open House a few months back, we're anticipating a straightforward quarter, with one-off topics in recent weeks focusing on Venezuela and media reports of the company being in talks to acquire TOU's Peace River asset. On VZ, while the company has the most torque relatively speaking to any potential widening in WCS differentials, the overreaction that CNQ equity / the group endured on the news has sensibly retraced matching the market's realization that it would take significant change / time / capital to actually bring a meaningful amount of incremental VZ supply into the global markets," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.
(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)
Price: 49.49, Change: +1.87, Percent Change: +3.93
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