Stock Markets Are Relying on the TACO Trade Again. Why That's Not Good. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones19:22

TACO is back on the menu. The acronym -- shorthand for Trump Always Chickens Out -- has proved to be a good guide for investors again regarding tariff threats over Greenland.

Predictions that President Donald Trump would compromise over the Arctic island looked to come true Wednesday. He backtracked on threats to hit European allies with tariffs and appeared willing to give up his professed aim for the U.S. to acquire the Danish territory. That's probably good news for retail traders, who have largely been following the "buy the dip" rule -- Citadel Securities analysts note retail trading has been skewed toward buying for the past seven consecutive weeks.

In many ways the TACO label is unfair and just reflects Trump's tactic of setting out a maximalist demand as a lever to achieve his real aims. However, the "future deal" on Greenland is still up in the air and therefore it is hard to know what caused the sudden climbdown. With negotiations until now largely being handled by Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, there is still the chance of a blowup if Denmark's government feels its sovereignty is being infringed upon.

Moreover, if the market begins to price in similar reversals on Trump proposals in future it arguably sets up a bigger shock if the administration follows through with its plans. The "sell America" trade and the flight from the dollar and Treasuries toward gold will continue to linger unless there is a more reliable curb on the president's unpredictable actions.

However, there are signs of more consistent pushback against the White House. Republican lawmakers were vocal in their opposition to the move for Greenland, while the Supreme Court on Wednesday expressed skepticism over the administration's attempt to fire Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook.

TACO has largely worked as a rule but that doesn't make it a healthy diet for markets. Investors should welcome a more holistic alternative.

-- Adam Clark

***Control your news feed. Set Barron's as a top source in Google for a more personalized experience.

***

Trump Cancels Greenland Tariff Threats After Meeting NATO Chief

After several days of pressuring EU allies, President Donald Trump canceled the additional 10% tariffs he had threatened on goods from eight European countries and announced an unspecified "framework of a future deal" for Greenland. The stunning reversal happened after Trump met with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Davos.

   -- Trump said the framework involves mineral rights and his proposed Golden 
      Dome military defense system. Hours before the announcement, Trump had 
      said he wouldn't use force to annex Greenland, which is a Danish 
      territory, but he made it clear he wanted it for national security 
      against Russia and China. 
 
   -- But Trump's blustering on Greenland has shifted policies. The EU said 
      earlier Wednesday that its trade deal with the U.S. was on hold until 
      further notice over the threats. The EU had agreed last summer to 
      eliminate tariffs on U.S. imports and other investments, but the deal was 
      never finalized. 
 
   -- Denmark's AkademikerPension fund is selling all of its roughly $100 
      million of U.S. Treasury holdings, including investments in shorter-dated 
      Treasury bills and longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. Treasury 
      Secretary Scott Bessent called Denmark's investments in Treasuries, like 
      Denmark itself, "irrelevant." 
 
   -- Investors may see tariff threats as less potent weapons for economic 
      coercion because Trump pulls back when markets revolt, but the 
      "uncertainty, volatility in policy, and threats" are why foreign leaders 
      are rethinking their exposure to the U.S., says Council on Foreign 
      Relations fellow Rebecca Patterson. 

What's Next: There was also the fear of EU retaliation, possibly by activating a new policy that could hit U.S. technology companies, drugmakers, and other multinationals. Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said Trump likely found little support in Congress and strong pushback from companies.

-- Anita Hamilton, Reshma Kapadia, and Janet H. Cho

***

Justices Appear Skeptical of Trump's Bid to Fire Fed Governor

Supreme Court justices across the ideological spectrum appeared doubtful that President Trump has the authority to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, as they weighed an emergency request that could test the legal and practical limits of central bank independence.

   -- Justice Sonia Sotomayor, an Obama nominee, pressed lawyers for the Trump 
      administration why the court needed to intervene now. The administration 
      wants them to block a lower court's ruling preventing the firing while 
      litigation continues. Chief Justice John Roberts, a Bush appointee, 
      appeared unconvinced that the allegations met the statutory standard. 
 
   -- Justice Samuel Alito, also a Bush nominee, suggested that rushing the 
      case could carry consequences for the Fed's independence. Justice Brett 
      Kavanaugh, a Trump nominee, warned that a ruling in the administration's 
      favor could effectively convert Fed governors into at-will employees, 
      eroding the institution's insulation from political pressure. 
 
   -- Several justices questioned what tangible harm Trump would suffer if Cook 
      remained in office while the case proceeded. By contrast, they suggested 
      that her removal could prompt markets to question whether the Fed's 
      decisions were being shaped by political pressure, particularly given 
      Trump's criticism over interest rates. 
 
   -- The case could have implications well beyond Cook's tenure. The Justice 
      Department is separately investigating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome 
      Powell over disclosures related to renovations at the Fed's headquarters. 
      Powell has denied wrongdoing, and no charges have been filed. 

What's Next: Trump continued his attacks on Powell, whom he nominated in 2017. While in Davos, Trump said he would expect loyalty from his next pick for Fed chair. The Fed holds its first policy meeting of the year next Wednesday and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

-- Nicole Goodkind

***

Kraft Heinz Stock Could See More Pressure If Berkshire Sheds Stake

Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO Greg Abel may be looking to clear out losing investments, including potentially selling all or part of its 27% stake in Kraft Heinz rather than take another write-down on the money-losing holding. Berkshire indicated the move in a filing but didn't respond to Barron's request for comment.

   -- Berkshire owns 325.4 million Kraft Heinz shares valued at around $7 
      billion. Under then-CEO Warren Buffett, Berkshire received them as part 
      of a merger of Kraft and Heinz in 2015. The filing said it may "offer to 
      sell from time to time" shares from that stake. 
 
   -- It could be that Buffett wasn't pleased about Kraft Heinz' plan to split 
      into two companies, a move that would create a higher-growth company and 
      a slower-growth one. He saw little point in a split reversing their 
      merger and increasing corporate costs because of duplicated functions. 
 
   -- Brands include Kraft Mac and Cheese, Heinz ketchup and sauces, and 
      Philadelphia cream cheese, a portfolio that could be considered a 
      disadvantage as more consumers pursue fresh foods, niche brands, and 
      private-label products. But Heinz ketchup and Philadelphia cream cheese 
      are solidly profitable brands. 
 
   -- Kraft Heinz has been a poor investment for Berkshire, which owned about 
      half of Heinz before the merger. It had taken the company private with 3G, 
      the investment firm founded in Brazil, in 2013. Buffett helped engineer 
      the merger of Kraft and Heinz. 3G has exited what once was a sizable 
      stake in Kraft Heinz. 

What's Next: If Berkshire does start selling, Kraft Heinz stock could come under additional pressure, after hitting a 52-week low on Wednesday. Berkshire will have to disclose a transaction within two business days. Kraft Heinz is expected to split the company in the second half of this year.

-- Andrew Bary and Janet H. Cho

***

Amazon Hits Back at Walmart With Planned Megastore

Walmart's successful e-commerce foray created a formidable opponent for Amazon.com. Now, the tech company is hitting back at Walmart in bricks and mortar retail, proposing to build a 225,000 square-foot store located in suburban Chicago. That would dwarf the average size of Walmart, Costco, and Target stores.

   -- The new concept is still in early development, but aims to make it easy 
      for people to shop Amazon's selection across groceries, household 
      essentials, and general merchandise, an Amazon spokeswoman said in 
      emailed comments to Barron's. She called the proposed store something 
      that customers will be excited about. 
 
   -- According to the application submitted to local authorities, the store 
      could offer "accessory services and potentially dining locations for 
      prepared food sold on-site." Shoppers will also have the ability to 
      receive deliveries from this location. The site will have a dedicated 
      space for e-commerce fulfillment. 
 
   -- Juggling e-commerce with a good in-store experience has proven a 
      challenge for many retailers. When Target, for instance, made it easier 
      for online shoppers to pick up goods in its stores, stocks of goods on 
      display in the aisles, employee availability, and overall store 
      aesthetics suffered, Barron's previously reported. 
 
   -- Amazon's record with stores has been mixed. While Whole Foods Market 
      stores have been a resounding success, efforts like Amazon Books, Amazon 
      Style, and Amazon Go have been less so. Books and Style both shut down 
      within a few years, and the number of Amazon Go stores has dwindled from 
      its peak. 

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

January 22, 2026 06:22 ET (11:22 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment