Assessing Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) Valuation After Gonneville Updates And Major Managing Director Share Sale

Simply Wall St.01-24 22:25

Investor focus on Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) has sharpened following detailed updates on its Gonneville palladium nickel copper project, as well as the Managing Director’s sale of 1.5 million shares, ...

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See our latest analysis for Chalice Mining. These Gonneville updates and the Managing Director’s 1.5 million share sale come after a 7 day share price return of 10.71% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 106.67%, set against a weaker 3 year and 5 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has recently picked up after a tougher longer term stretch. If you are weighing Chalice against other resource names, it can also be useful to scan across fast growing stocks with high insider ownership to spot different growth and ownership profiles that might suit your approach. With the share price up over the past year, a large insider selling, and Gonneville framed as a potentially transformative project, you have to ask whether Chalice Mining is still undervalued or whether the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementPrice to Book of 7.5x: Is it justified? On a P/B of 7.5x against the Australian Metals and Mining industry average of 2.8x, Chalice Mining is trading at a clear premium to the sector. The P/B ratio compares the company’s market value to its book value, which can be a useful cross check for asset heavy miners and explorers. A higher P/B usually implies the market is assigning extra value to future projects or intangible factors beyond the current balance sheet. Here, the premium is large, yet peers in Chalice’s closer comparison set trade on an average P/B of 35.8x. That suggests the broader industry looks cheaper, but within its more immediate peer group Chalice sits at the lower end of the valuation range. This could reflect how investors are weighing its unprofitable status, minimal current revenue and expectations on the Gonneville project. Against the wider Australian Metals and Mining industry, a 7.5x P/B is more than double the 2.8x average. This is a strong statement about how the market currently prices Chalice’s assets and future potential versus the typical miner. Compared with peers on 35.8x, however, the stock screens as relatively conservative on this metric, highlighting a tension between broad sector value and peer group enthusiasm. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. Result: Price to book of 7.5x (OVERVALUED) However, there are clear risks too, including Chalice’s A$24.214m loss and the possibility that Gonneville or broader exploration results fall short of current market expectations. Find out about the key risks to this Chalice Mining narrative. Another View: DCF Suggests A Different Story While the 7.5x P/B ratio screens as expensive against the broader Australian Metals and Mining industry, our DCF model points the other way. At A$2.48 per share, the stock is trading about 55.6% below an estimated future cash flow value of A$5.58. That raises a simple question: is the balance of risk skewed more to upside or downside from here? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. CHN Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Chalice Mining for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 864 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Chalice Mining Narrative If you look at the numbers and come to a different view, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a full narrative yourself in just a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your Chalice Mining research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you could miss other opportunities that fit your style better, so keep building your watchlist while the best ideas are still under the radar.  Spot potential value opportunities early by scanning these 864 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that line up with your expectations on cash flows and pricing. Explore long term themes in digital assets by reviewing these 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks that are tied to blockchain and cryptocurrency trends. Focus on income oriented opportunities through these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer yields above 3% for portfolio cash flow.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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