Assessing CNX Resources (CNX) Valuation After Conflicting Analyst Calls And Strong Cash Generation

Simply Wall St.01-25 15:21

CNX Resources (CNX) is back on investors’ radars after a mix of analyst downgrades on valuation concerns, upgrades tied to natural gas pricing, and increased attention on its free cash flow and share ...

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The 3 year total shareholder return of around 2.2x and 5 year total shareholder...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IE00BLDYK493.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US SMALL CAP \"A\" (USD) INC","CNX":"康索尔能源","BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","IE00B64QTZ34.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US SMALL CAP \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"在分析师评级和强劲现金生成发生冲突后评估CNX Resources(CNX)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CNX":1.5},"content_text":"CNX Resources (CNX) is back on investors’ radars after a mix of analyst downgrades on valuation concerns, upgrades tied to natural gas pricing, and increased attention on its free cash flow and share repurchase activity. See our latest analysis for CNX Resources. Those mixed analyst calls are landing after a strong run, with a 90 day share price return of 12.43% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 27.89%. The 3 year total shareholder return of around 2.2x and 5 year total shareholder return of around 2.9x suggest longer term momentum that some now see as fully reflected in the current US$36.64 share price. If CNX has you reassessing your energy exposure, it might be a good moment to widen the lens and look at aerospace and defense stocks as another area where investor interest can cluster around cash generation and resilience. With CNX trading near US$36.64 and analysts split between valuation worries and optimism around cash generation, the real question for you is simple: is there still mispricing here, or is the market already baking in the future? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 4% Overvalued CNX Resources last closed at $36.64, slightly above the most widely followed fair value estimate of about $35.29, which is built on detailed cash flow and earnings assumptions using a 7.20% discount rate.  Favorable policy and regulatory shifts towards cleaner-burning natural gas, including programs like 45Z tax credits and renewable energy attribute markets, are creating new, high-margin revenue streams (e.g., RMG sales, environmental credits), potentially enhancing both net margins and free cash flow.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue mix and margin profile could justify that fair value, even with a higher return hurdle built in? The narrative leans heavily on earnings growth, higher margins, and a richer cash flow stream that assumes CNX continues to tighten costs while tapping into new environmental markets. Want to see exactly how those moving parts are stitched together into that $35 range? Result: Fair Value of $35.29 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there is still the risk that expected tax credits or environmental revenues fall short, or that in-basin demand from data centers proves slower or smaller than modeled. Find out about the key risks to this CNX Resources narrative. Another View: P/E Ratios Send A Different Signal If the narrative fair value around $35.29 paints CNX as slightly overvalued, the P/E work tells a more complicated story. On 16.9x earnings, CNX trades richer than the US Oil and Gas industry at 13.6x, yet sits below a 21.1x fair ratio and far under a 53.3x peer average. So is the premium a warning sign, or is the market still catching up? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NYSE:CNX P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own CNX Resources Narrative If you see the numbers differently or simply want to stress test your own view, you can spin up a personalised CNX story in minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your CNX Resources research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If CNX has sharpened your thinking, do not stop there. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to quickly surface fresh ideas that fit your style.  Spot potential value plays early by checking out these 872 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, which focuses on companies priced below their estimated cash flow potential. Explore the AI trend with focus by scanning these 23 AI penny stocks, which groups businesses tied to artificial intelligence themes. Target income-focused opportunities by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, which highlights companies offering dividend yields above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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