A Look At RUSAL (SEHK:486) Valuation After Strong Gains And A Sharp One Day Share Price Decline

Simply Wall St.01-27

United Company RUSAL International (SEHK:486) has drawn investor attention after a sharp 4.9% one day share price decline, which contrasts with strong gains over the past month and the past 3 months. ...

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This suggests recent momentum has been strong, even as...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0823431647.USD":"BNP PARIBAS RUSSIA EQUITY \"CLASSIC\" (USD) INC","BK1592":"有色金属","00486":"俄铝","LU0950373646.USD":"BNP PARIBAS RUSSIA EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LU0215049551.USD":"摩根大通俄罗斯基金","LU0823431563.USD":"BNP PARIBAS RUSSIA EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","BK1175":"铝"},"translate_title":"俄罗斯铝业（SEHK：486）在强劲上涨和单日股价大幅下跌后的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"00486":1.5},"content_text":"United Company RUSAL International (SEHK:486) has drawn investor attention after a sharp 4.9% one day share price decline, which contrasts with strong gains over the past month and the past 3 months. See our latest analysis for United Company RUSAL International. That sharp 4.9% one day share price decline to HK$6.42 comes after a strong run, with a 30 day share price return of 40.79% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 105.77%. This suggests recent momentum has been strong, even as short term price swings hint at changing risk sentiment. If sharp moves in aluminium names have your attention, it could be a good moment to widen your watchlist and check out aerospace and defense stocks as another area tied to global industrial trends. With RUSAL’s share price up strongly over the past year and its recent HK$6.42 close sitting above the average analyst target, the key question now is whether the market is already pricing in future growth or leaving a genuine opportunity on the table. AdvertisementPrice-to-Earnings of 82.8x: Is it justified? On a simple P/E view, United Company RUSAL International looks expensive, with the share price at HK$6.42 implying a multiple of 82.8x that sits well above both peers and its own estimated fair range. The P/E ratio compares the share price to earnings per share, so a higher figure usually means investors are paying more for each unit of current earnings. For a cyclical, capital intensive business like aluminium and related materials, such a high P/E often suggests the market is placing a lot of weight on future earnings growth or on normalised profits rather than the most recent year. Here, RUSAL trades at a P/E of 82.8x compared with a Hong Kong Metals and Mining industry average of 19.7x and a peer group average of 15.1x. It is also well above an estimated fair P/E of 27.3x that the market could potentially move closer to if sentiment or earnings expectations shift. Explore the SWS fair ratio for United Company RUSAL International Result: Price-to-Earnings of 82.8x (OVERVALUED) However, you also need to weigh the risk that the HK$6.42 share price sits above the HK$4.27 analyst target, and that earnings growth may not match such a rich P/E. Find out about the key risks to this United Company RUSAL International narrative. Another View: DCF flags a very different picture While the P/E of 82.8x already looks demanding, our DCF model goes further and suggests RUSAL is trading above its estimated future cash flow value, with the HK$6.42 share price compared to a DCF value of HK$2.66. That gap points to valuation risk if expectations cool. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. 486 Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out United Company RUSAL International for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 888 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own United Company RUSAL International Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to weigh the data yourself, you can build and fine tune your own view in a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your United Company RUSAL International research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If RUSAL has sharpened your focus, do not stop there. Broaden your research now so you do not miss other opportunities that fit your style.  Spot potential value candidates quickly by checking out these 888 undervalued stocks based on cash flows which lines up current prices with underlying cash flow strength. Explore major tech shifts early by scanning these 23 AI penny stocks which links artificial intelligence themes with listed companies worldwide. Add income ideas to your watchlist by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% which offers yields above 3% with varied sector exposure.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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