A Look At Union Pacific (UNP) Valuation After Q4 Profitability Outpaces Slight Revenue Decline

Simply Wall St.01-28

Union Pacific (UNP) has released its fourth quarter 2025 results, reporting revenue of US$6,085 million, net income of US$1,848 million, and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of US...

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The 1-year total shareholder return of a 4.4% decline contrasts with positive 3- and 5-year total shareholder returns...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"UNP":"联合太平洋"},"translate_title":"第四季度盈利能力超过收入小幅下降后联合太平洋公司(UNP)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"UNP":1.5},"content_text":"Union Pacific (UNP) has released its fourth quarter 2025 results, reporting revenue of US$6,085 million, net income of US$1,848 million, and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of US$3.11. See our latest analysis for Union Pacific. At a share price of US$232.55, Union Pacific has seen a 7-day share price return of 4.9% and a 90-day share price return of 7.5%. The 1-year total shareholder return of a 4.4% decline contrasts with positive 3- and 5-year total shareholder returns of 22.2% and 26.3%, suggesting shorter term momentum has picked up even as longer term investors have seen more moderate gains. If earnings and merger headlines have you reassessing rail stocks, it can also be a good moment to broaden your search with aerospace and defense stocks for other transport linked opportunities. With earnings per share moving higher even as revenue was slightly lower and the stock trading at a discount to some valuation estimates, you have to ask: Is Union Pacific quietly undervalued here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 11.6% Undervalued Union Pacific's most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $263 per share, compared with the recent close of $232.55, putting a spotlight on the gap between model and market.  The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from about US$260.24 to roughly US$263.21 per share. The future P/E has been set higher, moving from about 21.81x to roughly 22.11x, indicating a modestly richer multiple in the updated framework.  Read the complete narrative. If you want to see what sits behind that higher fair value, the narrative walks through steady top line expansion, firm margins and a richer earnings multiple that still stays below the wider transportation pack. Curious which assumptions matter most in lifting the target and how sensitive the story is to small changes in growth and discount rate inputs? Result: Fair Value of $263 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that gap between fair value and price could close quickly if regulatory scrutiny around the Norfolk Southern merger tightens further or if freight demand softens from here. Find out about the key risks to this Union Pacific narrative.  Build Your Own Union Pacific Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to follow your own trail of evidence, you can build a fresh narrative in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Union Pacific research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Union Pacific has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Widen your watchlist with focused stock ideas that match the themes you care about most.  Target steady income streams by checking out these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may fit a yield focused portfolio without stretching too far out of your comfort zone. Tap into potential mispricing by scanning these 880 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that line up company fundamentals with market expectations in a clear, comparable way. Get ahead of fast changing tech by reviewing these 24 AI penny stocks that sit at the intersection of software, data and real world applications.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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