A Look At Dynex Capital (DX) Valuation After Robust 2025 Earnings And Capital Expansion

Simply Wall St.01-28

Dynex Capital (DX) has drawn fresh investor attention after releasing its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, reporting net income of US$185.36 million for the quarter and US$319.07 million for...

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See our latest analysis for Dynex Capital. Dynex Capital's recent earnings release, higher book value and capital raising activity have coincided with a 10.58% 3 month share price return and a 33.51% 1 year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum has been building rather than fading. If this kind of income focused story has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. Yet with Dynex Capital earning US$2.49 per share in 2025 and trading around US$14.74, plus sitting only slightly below the average analyst price target, you have to ask: is there still value here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementPrice to Earnings of 9.5x: Is it justified? On a P/E of 9.5x versus a last close of $14.74, Dynex Capital screens as relatively inexpensive compared with both the broader US market and its Mortgage REIT peers. The P/E ratio tells you how much investors are paying today for each dollar of earnings. This metric is especially closely watched for income oriented names like mortgage REITs that often distribute a large share of earnings as dividends. Dynex Capital is described as trading at good value compared to peers and industry, with its 9.5x P/E below the US market at 19.4x and below the US Mortgage REITs industry average at 12.8x. Against an estimated fair P/E of 11.6x, the current level also sits at a discount that some investors may see as room the market could potentially close if sentiment and earnings expectations stay aligned. Relative to peers, the spread is clear, with the stock valued below both the 13.9x peer average and the 12.8x sector average. This suggests the market is currently pricing Dynex Capital more cautiously than many of its closest comparables despite recent earnings strength. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Dynex Capital Result: Price-to-Earnings of 9.5x (UNDERVALUED) However, you still have to weigh risks such as annual revenue declining by 16% and the stock trading close to its US$14.95 analyst target. Find out about the key risks to this Dynex Capital narrative. Another View: DCF Puts a Very Different Price on DX While the 9.5x P/E suggests Dynex Capital looks inexpensive, our DCF model tells a different story. On that approach, DX at $14.74 is above an estimated future cash flow value of $8.87, which implies the shares could be overvalued if those cash flow assumptions hold up. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. DX Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Dynex Capital for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 879 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Dynex Capital Narrative If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can use the same data to build a complete view in just a few minutes, then Do it your way. A great starting point for your Dynex Capital research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready for more investment ideas beyond Dynex Capital? If you are serious about finding your next opportunity, do not stop at a single stock. Put screeners to work so you can compare, filter and act with confidence.  Spot potential value plays early by checking out these 879 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that currently trade at a discount to their cash flow profiles. Position yourself in one of the fastest growing themes by scanning these 24 AI penny stocks shaping the future of automation and data driven decision making. Strengthen your income ideas by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer yields above 3% with the cash returns front and center.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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