Why Capital One Financial (COF) Is Down 6.7% After Q4 Earnings Miss And Rising Credit Losses

Simply Wall St.01-30

In January 2026, Capital One Financial reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing net interest income of US$12,466 million and net income of US$2,134 million, alongside net charge-offs rising to US$...

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The earnings miss versus analyst expectations, coupled with higher credit losses, has already drawn legal scrutiny and prompted revisions to analyst earnings forecasts. Next, we will examine how the earnings miss and rising net charge-offs shape Capital One Financial’s broader investment narrative for investors. These 12 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.AdvertisementWhat Is Capital One Financial's Investment Narrative?To own Capital One Financial today, you need to be comfortable with a consumer credit story where growth and risk move together. The latest quarter underlined that trade-off: net interest income climbed to US$12,466 million and net income to US$2,134 million, but net charge-offs jumped to US$3,833 million and the stock dropped sharply on an earnings miss. That setback has quickly become part of the near term catalyst mix, alongside the Brex acquisition and the ongoing Discover integration, because it sharpened market focus on credit quality, regulatory attention and potential legal overhang from the new securities investigation. While analysts still see upside relative to prior fair value estimates, the combination of higher losses and a rich earnings multiple means the biggest question for shareholders is how much credit volatility they are willing to own. However, rising charge-offs and legal scrutiny introduce a risk many investors may be underestimating.\n\nDespite retreating, Capital One Financial's shares might still be trading 30% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.Exploring Other PerspectivesCOF 1-Year Stock Price Chart Five Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span roughly US$160 to over US$314, reflecting very different views on Capital One’s worth, especially given rising charge-offs and the fresh legal scrutiny highlighted earlier.Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Capital One Financial - why the stock might be worth 27% less than the current price!Build Your Own Capital One Financial NarrativeDisagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Capital One Financial research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Capital One Financial research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Capital One Financial's overall financial health at a glance.Ready For A Different Approach?Opportunities like this don't last. These are today's most promising picks. Check them out now:We've found 14 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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