Zero Gains Left For Bitcoin ETF Buyers And $80,000 May Be Next, Analyst Warns

Benzinga01-31 01:14

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETF holders are now underwater with the average purchase price at $90,200 while BTC trades at $84,000, according to Bianco Research’s Jim Bianco.The Profitless RealityBianco ...

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The company sits on roughly $8,000 profit per coin, or about 12% gain.Together, Strategy and the Bitcoin ETFs control roughly 10% of all Bitcoin in circulation.However, Bianco’s data shows they now have no unrealized profits collectively.The $84,500 Defense LineHistorical patterns suggest the average cost basis acts as critical support. In September 2024, when BTC fell below the ETF’s average purchase level, the token consolidated before staging a strong recovery. A similar pattern emerged in early 2025 during the tariff-driven selloff.Bianco Research calculates the combined average purchase price for Strategy and spot BTC ETFs currently sits at $84,500. Throughout this cycle, major drawdowns have consistently eased at this level, making it crucial to maintaining the broader bullish market structure.A sustained dip below $84,500 signals a deeper drawdown that could invalidate the bullish thesis entirely.Technical Breakdown Confirms WeaknessBitcoin is down 2.5% on the day and nearly 8% from recent highs, with the technical setup showing critical weakness.BTC broke below a rising wedge pattern formed by converging trendlines. The wedge compressed price action for several weeks, and the breakdown is a classic bearish signal that typically leads to further downside.Bitcoin trades below all four key EMAs in bearish formation: 20 EMA at $89,056, 50 EMA at $90,665, 100 EMA at $94,244, and 200 EMA at $98,135. The 20 EMA sits nearly $5,000 above current price, showing the extent of the momentum shift.The Supertrend indicator at $91,180 flipped bearish and positions well above price, confirming the downtrend.Support Levels And Downside TargetsImmediate support sits around $82,500-$83,000, representing the measured target from the wedge breakdown. Below that, major support sits at $80,000, a psychologically important level that acted as support in previous corrections.A break below $80,000 triggers panic selling and opens the door to the $75,000-$78,000 range.For any bullish recovery, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the wedge breakdown level around $87,000-$88,000 and push back above the 20 EMA. Until that happens, rallies represent opportunities to reduce risk rather than add exposure.Image: ShutterstockMarket News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2607028190","isCrawlerRequest":true}