Is It Too Late To Consider AutoZone (AZO) After Strong Multi Year Share Price Gains?

Simply Wall St.01-30

If you have ever wondered whether AutoZone at around US$3,703.76 a share is priced fairly or carrying a premium, you are not alone. The stock invites a closer look at what you are really paying for. ...

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The stock invites a closer look at what you are really paying for. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nyse-azo/autozone/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-autozone-azo-after-strong-multi-y-1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0345770308.USD","symbol_name":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nyse-azo/autozone/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-autozone-azo-after-strong-multi-y-1","article_id":"2607040214","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/25307-main-header/1756252731911"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nyse-azo/autozone/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-autozone-azo-after-strong-multi-y-1","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607040214","pubTimestamp":1769777510,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you have ever wondered whether AutoZone at around US$3,703.76 a share is priced fairly or carrying a premium, you are not alone. 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The stock invites a closer look at what you are really paying for. Over the past month the share price has moved 9.0%, with returns of 12.1% year to date, 10.5% over 1 year, 51.6% over 3 years and 203.5% over 5 years. This naturally raises questions about how much upside or risk is now baked into the current price. Recent attention on AutoZone has focused on its role as a large US auto parts retailer, with investors weighing how consumer demand for repairs compares with broader retail trends. This backdrop helps explain why the stock's recent returns are in focus as the market reassesses what kind of performance justifies the current valuation. Our Simply Wall St valuation checks give AutoZone a score of 1 out of 6, which suggests that on most measures used here the shares do not screen as clearly undervalued. Next we will break down what different valuation approaches say about the stock and finish by looking at a more complete way to think about its value.  AutoZone scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: AutoZone Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model looks at the cash AutoZone is expected to generate in the future and discounts those projections back to what they might be worth in today's dollars. It is essentially asking what a stream of future cash flows could reasonably be worth now. For AutoZone, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $2.07b. Analyst inputs and extrapolated estimates suggest Free Cash Flow figures between roughly $2.15b and $4.41b a year over the coming decade, with $3.25b projected for 2030. Forecasts beyond the first five years are extrapolated by Simply Wall St rather than coming directly from analysts. When these cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $3,308.74 per share. Compared with the current share price of around $3,703.76, this implies the stock screens as about 11.9% overvalued under this method. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests AutoZone may be overvalued by 11.9%. Discover 866 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. AZO Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for AutoZone. Approach 2: AutoZone Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like AutoZone, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. A higher P/E usually reflects stronger growth expectations or lower perceived risk, while a lower P/E can point to more modest growth assumptions or higher risk. AutoZone currently trades on a P/E of 24.9x. That sits above the Specialty Retail industry average P/E of 19.3x, yet below a peer group average of 38.0x. To sharpen this view, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio,” which estimates what a more tailored P/E might look like once factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks are considered. Because the Fair Ratio incorporates those fundamentals directly, it can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry. For AutoZone, the Fair Ratio is 19.8x, which is meaningfully below the current 24.9x. On this basis, the shares screen as trading at a premium to what the Fair Ratio suggests. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:AZO P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1414 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your AutoZone Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which let you attach a clear story, your perspective on a company, to the numbers like fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins you think are realistic. A Narrative links three things in one place, the business story, the financial forecast that follows from that story, and the fair value estimate that drops out of those assumptions. You can build and explore Narratives on Simply Wall St's Community page, where millions of investors compare their fair values to the current share price to help decide whether a stock might be closer to a buy, hold or sell for them. Each Narrative updates automatically when new information such as earnings or major news is added to the platform. For AutoZone, one investor might see a more cautious outlook and arrive at a fair value well below their peer's estimate. Another might expect stronger long term performance and set a much higher fair value, and those differences are captured clearly in their respective Narratives on the Community page. Do you think there's more to the story for AutoZone? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:AZO 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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